Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Editor's column Those who make a living predicting oil prices see a softer market in 2013, although prices are forecast to stay at historically high levels. Many analysts are predicting that oil prices will fall this year because of global economic weakness and the tremendous production growth coming from North America. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its outlook for global growth this year from 4.2% to 3.4%, saying that the European debt crisis would seriously threaten the world economy. A sur-vey by Reuters of 29 analysts, for instance, forecasts that Brent crude oil will aver-age USD 107/bbl this year and WTI will average just under USD 95/bbl. That is about USD 5/bbl below their average price in 2012. But there is wide divergence among the analysts, with five analysts predicting that Brent will average less than USD 100/bbl and one forecast as low as USD 80/bbl. Those analysts see a fundamental oversupply of oil this year that will drag down oil prices. The highest forecast in the group was for USD 125/bbl Brent. Other price forecast surveys show similar predictions of weakness in the oil market, not only in 2013 but in 2014 as well. The Goldman Sachs Group believes that suspended oil production from Iran, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen will be restored over the next 3 years, contributing to an oversupply of oil. OPEC is already reacting to the somewhat bearish price outlook. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer, cut production in December by 465,000 BOPD to 9.025 mil-lion BOPD, its largest monthly drop since November 2008. OPEC recently decided to reduce oil supplies because of the rising North American output and recovering oil shipments from Iraq. Brent prices may drop as much as 20% in the first half of this year if OPEC does not significantly curtail production, according to the Centre for Global Energy Studies. OPEC Governor Ali Yabhouni of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) agreed last month that the “call” on OPEC crude this year would be flat to declining. Speaking at the Gulf Intelligence UAE Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi, he forecast that global oil demand would increase by 800,000 BOPD this year compared with 2012, but noted that non-OPEC production would increase 900,000 BOPD. The US Energy Information Administration expects global consumption to rise by nearly 1 mil-lion BOPD this year while non-OPEC production increases by 1.3 million BOPD, with most of the increase coming from US tight oil and Canadian tar sands. While the price outlook might be bearish, exploration and production (E&P) spending continues to be robust. Oil activity outside of North America will contribute to a 7% increase in worldwide energy E&P spending to a record high USD 644 billion, according to Barclays’ 2013 Global E&P Spending Outlook. The regions seeing the most E&P activity are expected to be Latin America, Australasia, and the Middle East. The operators participating in the survey are basing their 2013 plans on oil prices of USD 98/bbl Brent and USD 85/bbl WTI, which suggests that the projections may actually underestimate E&P spending levels.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,010 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,004 | 0,004 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,009 | 0,008 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,210 | 0,191 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».