Notice bibliographique
Résumé
From the oracles of Greek antiquity to the crystal balls of druids, the possibility of predicting future events has captured human imagination for millennia. Even modern scientists and wildlife managers are not immune to this desire. For decades, researchers have tried to develop reliable methods for predicting the survival of wild animals. In particular, scientists have attempted to connect mechanistic physiological measurements with subsequent survival. Frustratingly for researchers, most of the parameters measured to date are not reliable predictors of survival. It seems that many physiological parameters are too sensitive to current conditions and are therefore too changeable to be used to predict future survival. However, a recent paper by Lee Koren and colleagues presents a promising method for survival rate prediction. The worldwide team of researchers from Canada, Israel, New Zealand and the United Kingdom used novel hormone measurements to predict survival in wild house sparrows (Passer domesticus).Previous research has attempted to correlate hormone levels with subsequent survival, but with limited success. Koren and colleagues approached the problem differently.First, hormones in wild animals are typically measured in blood or faecal samples. Such samples reflect current hormone levels and tend to be highly dependent on current conditions, and are therefore highly variable. Instead, Koren and colleagues measured hormone levels in feathers grown after the autumn moult to obtain an incorporated measure of hormone levels during the period of feather growth.Second, hormones are typically measured using labelled antibodies that bind to a hormone of interest. But antibody binding is inherently inaccurate, as antibodies are never entirely specific to the hormone of interest. In the current study, Koren and colleagues avoided the errors associated with non-specific antibody binding and inaccurate sampling by measuring feather hormone levels with mass spectrometry. Using this novel approach, they showed that feather hormone levels predict the birds’ overwinter survival and that birds with lower feather hormone levels are more likely to survive the subsequent winter.The hormones measured in the study by Koren and colleagues were cortisol, corticosterone and testosterone. Cortisol and corticosterone are associated with the stress response, while testosterone is an important sex hormone. All three hormones are associated with energy use and metabolism in both male and female birds. The team suggests that differences in energetic needs or stored energy reserves during the autumn might be reflected in the feather hormone concentrations and may then influence overwinter survival. Interestingly, while corticosterone is a well-known stress hormone in birds, this paper is one of the first to demonstrate that birds also produce cortisol.The use of hormone measurements from feather samples to predict survival potentially offers a new tool for wildlife managers to predict the survival of wild animals. Such a tool is a valuable addition to population management and conservation. Forget tea leaves and tarot cards; at least for house sparrows, feather hormones predict the future.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,013 | 0,008 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».