Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The purpose of this thesis is to develop a theoretical framework which could then be used to measure structural unemployment. This is done by first surveying the relevant literature, then developing a theoretical model for the measurement of structural unemployment, and finally applying this model to Canadian data. In the survey of the relevant literature the various approaches are categorized into the causal, the structural maladjustment and the policy approaches. The causal approach involves explaining structural unemployment in terms of the causes of labour displacement. This is considered inadequate because it ignores problems in the labour market adjustment process, whose function is to wipe out the imbalances created by structural dislocations. These problems are considered by the structural maladjustment approach, together with the symptoms of structural maladjustment. It analyzes the forces promoting and impeding the labour market adjustment process. However, these forces are at present not quantifiable. The symptoms of structural maladjustment, on the other hand, are. A favourite method of determining changes in structural maladjustment has been the analysis of the structure of unemployment. This thesis, however, supports the contention that this method is generally misleading. Analyses of long-duration unemployment are also considered not to be useful, but a framework involving the relationship of unemployment to vacancies is seen as fruitful. The policy approach is concerned with the relationship of unemployment and inflation. According to this approach, the degree of structural maladjustment is indicated by the distance of the inflation-unemployment function from the origin. However, there are problems involved in using it to measure structural unemployment, primarily because of the impurities involved in the relationship. The next step is to develop a model which does not depend on proxies for labour demand, but uses variables directly related to the labour market, and has a theoretical rationale. This model must separate the effects of aggregate demand and of structural imbalances on unemployment. It does this by determining the cyclical relationship between the unemployment and vacancy rates and attributing changes which cannot be explained by this relationship to changes in the level of structural imbalances. . This model is then applied to Canadian data. Before that can be done, however, the vacancy rate has to be derived from N.E.S. vacancy data. The ratio of actual vacancies to N.E.S. vacancies is estimated on the basis of the ratio of total hirings to N.E.S. placements. Using the vacancy rate thus estimated, several forms of the relationship between the unemployment and vacancy, rates are empirically tested. The results indicate that very little of the changes in the total unemployment rate are attributable to changes in structural imbalances. Variability in unemployment is largely caused by variability in aggregate demand. However, there appears to have been some upward trend in the structural unemployment rate (defined as the unemployment rate that would prevail if aggregate labour demand were equal to aggregate labour supply), from 3 per cent in the early 1950's to nearly 4 per cent in the 1960's. These results suffer from the uncertainty involved in the estimated vacancy rate, but an analysis of changes in the ratio of total hirings to N.E.S. placements, which was used in the estimation, supports the findings concerning the structural unemployment trend.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,007 | 0,034 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,005 | 0,006 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,003 | 0,007 |
| Communication savante | 0,003 | 0,004 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,005 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,007 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».