Effects of temporal perspective width on intuitive prediction of player behaviour by ice-hockey officials

This thesis investigates a new model of non-normative prediction that addresses the contribution of width of temporal perspective to intuitive prediction. Intuitive prediction is defined in this thesis as the non-normative prediction of other's behaviour. This new model of intuitive prediction is termed the Temporal Perspective Model (TPM). The notion of temporal perspective expands upon the understanding of intuitive prediction provided by several major social and cognitive theories of the judgement process. TPM asserts that utilisation of the triad of past temporal perspective, present temporal perspective and future temporal perspective increases accuracy of intuitive prediction in judgement contexts. Past and future temporal perspectives are used through the generation and rehearsal of both experience-acquired and novel, possible judgement strategies outside of the actual judgement context (GIOA). Present temporal perspective (PTP) plays a mediating role in the expression of the products of this process within the judgement context. TPM posits that the width of temporal perspective is influenced by perceptions of self-efficacy, which is associated with use of past and future perspectives in the generation of judgement strategies, and also by motivational style, which is associated with engagement of present temporal perspective. Five motivational styles and their associated affects are proposed as influences on present temporal perspective: aggressive motivation, conflict motivation, competitive motivation, cooperative motivation and competence motivation. The context in which TPM has been investigated is the sport environment. The subjects in this study were 118 ice-hockey officials from Vancouver's Lower Mainland. A two by two factorial design was utilised to investigate the major proposition that the temporal perspective model distinguishes individuals in terms of overall achievement in a judgement context. The overall achievement variable was the first principle component derived from an analysis of a set of nine items referring to achieved levels of officiating, number of games assigned and supervisor and peer commendations. This analysis demonstrated significant differences between levels of overall achievement on the following variables: a) engagement of past and future temporal perspectives outside of the judgement context; b) engagement of present temporal perspective within the judgement context; c) the motivational styles of cooperation and competence. Aggressive, conflict and competitive motivations did not significantly distinguish groups in terms of overall achievement. A second two by two design of past-future by present temporal perspective was implemented to investigate the mediation of past-future temporal perspectives by present temporal perspective on the dependent variable of intuitive prediction. The variable of intuitive prediction was the first principle component of an analysis performed on five items relating to peer reports of implementation of successful, creative or original solutions to game problems. This analysis yielded significant main effects for the first factor of past-future temporal perspective and for the second factor of present temporal perspective. A highly significant interaction was found between past-future temporal perspective and present temporal perspective on the dependent variable intuitive prediction. Correlational analyses revealed significant associations between present temporal perspective and motivational style. The results of this study have largely supported the validity of the constructs proposed in TPM.

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