Determining Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence in the Canadian Arctic Using a Dense GPS Velocity Field for North America

With observed climate warming in the western Canadian Arctic and potential increases in regional sea level, we anticipate expansion of the coastal region subject to rising relative sea level and increased flooding risk. This is a concern for coastal communities such as Holman NWT and Kugluktuk NU and for the design and safety of hydrocarbon production facilities on the Mackenzie Delta. To provide a framework in which to monitor these changes, a consistent velocity field has been determined from GPS observations throughout North America, including the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Mackenzie Delta region. An expanded network of continuous GPS sites and multi-epoch (episodic) sites has enabled an increased density that enhances the application to geophysical studies including the discrimination of crustal motion, other components of coastal subsidence, and sea-level rise. To obtain a dense velocity field consistent at all scales, we have combined weekly solutions of continuous GPS sites from different agencies in Canada and the USA, together with the global reference frame under the North American Reference Frame initiative. Although there is already a high density of continuous GPS sites in the conterminous United States, there are many fewer such sites in Canada. To make up for this lack of density, we have incorporated high-accuracy episodic GPS observations on stable monuments distributed throughout Canada. By combining up to ten years of repeated, episodic GPS observations at such sites, together with weekly solutions from the continuous sites, we have obtained a highly consistent velocity field with a significantly increased spatial sampling of crustal deformation throughout Canada. This exhibits a spatially coherent pattern of uplift and subsidence that is consistent with the expected rates of glacial isostatic adjustment. To determine the contribution of vertical motion to sea-level rise under climate warming in the Canadian Arctic, we have established co-located tide gauges and continuous GPS at a number of sites across the Canadian Arctic. AGU Fall Meeting San Francisco, December 5-9, 2005 Paper G11A-1203 LiDAR survey to simulate effects of subsidence in the outer delta. Lower panel shows flooding to 1 m above MSL (upper panel). This could become the mean topography through a combination of regional and local subsidence. Fjord, boulder barricade, and tidal flats, Pangnirtung (Baffin Island) NU Preliminary velocity field for combined CGPS & EGPS network in Canada Natural Resources Ressources naturelles Canada Canada

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