Two essays analysing pollution from agriculture : alternatives for assessing indirect effects
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Given the importance of agricultural GHG mitigation strategies, this thesis addresses, both theoretically and empirically, the indirect effects of GHG mitigation in agriculture. The first Chapter is focused on the "ancillary" physical effects of GHG mitigation, specifically in the case of water quality. Chapter two provides an adaptation of a theoretical/graphical framework that can be used to analyze the indirect effects of GHG mitigation strategies. The analysis in Chapter one develops watershed and provincial estimates of water quality co-effects of GHG mitigation strategies by linking a water quality model to a national level agricultural sector model. The Canadian Economic and Emissions Model of Agriculture (CEEMA) is used as the agricultural model. Its output is used as input for the Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Model (AGNPS). The output of AGNPS is then assessed using the British Columbia (BC) Water Quality Guidelines. Results from Chapter one show that around 28% of the water in the Okanagan watershed is below desirable standards. The provincial results were obtained for the lower part of BC. They show that the basins along the main rivers contain water that is barely suitable for aquatic life. In the case of the Okanagan watershed under a $25/tonne carbon equivalent price scenario there is around a 4% decrease in the total pollutant loadings ending up in the water. The biggest decrease is in Nitrogen, around 7%, with TSS being around 6%, and Phosphorous being insignificantly under 1% change. The results show that the water quality ancillary effects of GHG mitigation strategies are existent and can be quantified and targeted accordingly. The analysis done in Chapters two, although different from the analysis in Chapter one, presents an example of the possible microfoundations for some of the effects quantified in Chapter one and allows us to see how farmers react to different scenarios caused by the presence of a carbon equivalent price. The two assumed scenarios are: An overall increase of the prices of all inputs and an increase only on the N-based fertilizer price. I show how a farmer will react to these changes focusing on his risk attitudes. Chapter two uses the state contingent approach with the case of a farmer that produces a certain crop and is faced with uncertainty caused by two states of the environment and by input use. Using state contingency I develop a diagrammatic framework to analyze input transformation and two scenarios assumed to be caused by the presence of a carbon equivalent price and the resulting effects on non point source pollution. This type of framework is relatively new in the literature and discusses intuition that has not been presented before to analyze GHG mitigation. Both analyses done on this thesis, although radically different, show that when doing policy analysis on GHG mitigation they have to be targeted according to research done on their overall effects. Failing to do proper policy analysis could prove to be resource and time consuming not achieving the desired effects. Analyzing policies aimed to reduce GHG emissions must include both the direct and indirect effects caused by their adoption. These analyzes have to include the effects that geographic, climatic, and other aspects will have on their outcome. If these outcomes are not correctly assessed, they could lead to failed objectives in reducing GHG emissions and improving the environment.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,012 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,007 |
| Communication savante | 0,005 | 0,004 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,003 | 0,004 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,010 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».