Notice bibliographique
Résumé
PARTICIPANTS | Beacon Economics = LA, California; Conf Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy, com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D. C; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D. C; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Canada; SP U.S. Bank = Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D. C; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.From all indications (both quantitative such as consensus economic variables included in the forecast tables and qualitative perspectives such as surveys of consumer confidence and business leader's confidence), the U.S. economy appears to be stuck in neutral. Nowhere in the attached tables of forecasts is there any indication of a return to a recessionary state. Nonetheless, spirit of noncommittal prevails. So, the good news may be that we are not backsliding into a downturn yet; the bad news appears to be that we definitely are not going to be growing much anytime soon.Ray Perryman of the Perryman Group summed it up nicely with a comment attached to his forecasts, which cites an air of caution. That caution can be attributed to a whole host of factors including: Concerns over Europe, the looming domestic fiscal cliff, tension in oil-producing regions, a marked slowdown in the Chinese economy, and, of course, the upcoming election. The difficulty with this assessment is that there appears to be little relief in sight or even across an extended view over the horizon.Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College of Business calls it the Anticipation Effect. In his most recent press announcement, Dhawan essentially said that both consumer and business confidence are hurting. With that said, if firms are unwilling to take any long-term risks, then most certainly the impact of it will be significant as to the direction of the economy. In addition, if consumers are tending toward a more cautious assessment, then any unnecessary purchases such as the big ticket items of housing and autos will be postponed, contributing to a significant negative ripple effect.Keith Hembre, Chief Economist at U.S. Bank, provided a valuable insight in his recent work when he made the point that the weaker growth trend inevitably leaves the U.S. economy more susceptible to shocks arising from jolts abroad and to domestic policy miscues at home.The Consensus Outlook calls for real GDP to grow at a 1.7% rate over the next four quarters. Current PDI and PCE are expected to grow 2.4% and 3.3%, respectively, over the same time frame. A notable point in the forecast is that the Consensus does not have the nation's unemployment rate declining to under 8% until next fall. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».