Relationship of Physiological Fitness Tests and Early Career Hockey Success in Elite Ice Hockey Players

Talent identification in professional sport is an important component for building a successful team. In an effort to improve athlete identification, physiological fitness assessments are included in a number of leagues, and attempts have been made to quantify the predictive ability of individual tests. In the National Hockey League (NHL), physiological fitness measures have been shown to correlate with draft selection order, but less subjective rankings of success have previously not been considered. PURPOSE: To determine the predictive ability of draft-age physiological fitness test outcomes to forecast the cumulative total games played within the player’s first 3 consecutive NHL seasons. Games played are an accepted indicator of success at the professional level. METHODS: Multiple linear regression modeling was used with NHL Combine data (1998-2007) for a total of 451 players, who played ≥1 game per year during their first 3 NHL seasons. Separate models were developed for forwards and defense, given the differing physiological profiles and positional demands. RESULTS: For defensemen, the variables of vertical jump (VJ), push-ups, bench press, and body index were included in the final model (p=0.001, r2=0.15). The regression equation to predict number of games played by defensemen over 3yr was: total games= 177 -0.979 (VJ) + 4.068(max push up) -3.87(max bench press) +9.5 (Body index). The only predictive variable for forward players was push up repetitions (p=0.01, r2=0.04); total games =193.1 -2.3(max push-up). CONCLUSION: NHL Combine data was useful for explaining approximately 4% (forward) and 15% (defense) of the variance in games played amongst players who played ≥3yr in the league, suggesting a modest predictive ability. Upper body strength proved an important predictor for both models, while leg power was identified as a predictor only in defensemen. Homogeneity in performance amongst such elite athletes may explain the absence of more traditional measures of physiological fitness (VO2max, anaerobic power) within the predictive models, as a high level of these physiological traits is obligatory for all players who remained in the league at least three years.

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