Impact of climate change on the winter regime of the Peace River in Alberta
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The effect of climate change on natural processes in the environment can be very difficult to quantify and is often of great interest to regulators and users of water resources in particular.River ice conditions along the Peace River in Alberta directly affect both the population and industries in its vicinity.As the Peace River is regulated for hydropower generation, there is a degree of human influence over the variables that determine the winter regime of the river.The purpose of this investigation was to develop a model capable of simulating thermal ice processes on northern rivers, which could, in turn, provide a means of assessing climate change effects on river ice.The Peace River was a good case study for this research because of upstream flow regulation at the Bennett and Peace Canyon Dams in British Columbia, and the existence of a comprehensive monitoring database containing much of the data needed to run a thermal river ice model.The RiverlD thermal model was applied to the historical record for the Peace River, and results showed good agreement with water temperature measurements taken in recent years at the town of Peace River and Peace River at Alces gauge sites.The day that the zero degree isotherm reaches both locations is well represented in the simulation results, indicating that the transport and exchange of the river's heat energy is being modeled adequately.Data for the past twenty winter seasons on record (1984/85 through 2003/04) were used to assess the model's ability to simulate the progression and recession of the ice front from a downstream boundary at Fort Vermilion, Alberta (829 km downstream of the Bennett Dam).At its current stage of development, the model is considered to return reasonably accurate profiles of ice front location throughout the winter season, compared to the recorded observations.A further objective of this project was to illustrate the potential use of the model for assessing potential climate change impacts of the thermal ice regime of regulated rivers.For this purpose, the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) "A2" climate change scenario was used to adjust the historical air temperature record and simulate corresponding ice front profiles based on conditions predicted in the year 2050.Results suggest that there is a significant potential for a reduced ice covered season under the climate change scenario investigated.Specifically, the model suggests a 3 3 -day reduction in the duration of ice cover at the town of Peace River.In addition, the simulated maximum ice cover extent was an average of 66 km shorter after climate change, compared to the historical simulation results.These results are, of course, preliminary at this stage as there are factors yet to consider.For example, the effects of climate change on bridging date and on the reservoir outflow temperatures need further examination.In terms of the model itself, dynamics processes such as ice cover consolidation must next be incorporated.Thus the climate change predictions should be considered qualitative indications only.Nevertheless, these results do indicate a significant potential for impact, and adaptive strategies should be considered.Models, such as the one developed here, are ideal tools for such investigations. Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Regime of the Peace River in Alberta i
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».