In Reply to Dr. Schrimpf
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
To the Editor: As noted by Dr. Schrimpf in his response1Schrimpf P. In response to risk of avalanche involvement in winter backcountry recreation by Zweifel et al. Wilderness Environ Med. In press.Google Scholar to our article,2Zweifel B. Procter E. Techel F. Strapazzon G. Boutellier R. Risk of avalanche involvement in winter backcountry recreation: the advantage of small groups.Wilderness Environ Med. 2016; 27: 203-2103Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (13) Google Scholar our investigation of group size and avalanche risk did not adequately differentiate group risk from individual risk. We appreciate Dr. Schrimpf's input and support his remarks in this context. In our study, we found that the risk of an avalanche accident increases with group size (based on an analysis of accidents with at least 1 backcountry recreationist caught in the avalanche). However, we did not report the number of people per group who were caught or killed in these accidents and thus did not report individual risk. It is plausible that survival chances are higher for recreationists in large groups compared with small groups due to more resources for companion rescue. Based on our dataset from the Swiss avalanche database (winter 2003–2004 to winter 2012–2013, 446 accidents), an individual's chance of survival increases with increasing group size: 76% for individuals travelling alone, 88% for those in groups of 2, 92% for those in groups of 3, 96% for those in groups of 4, 100% for those in groups of 5 (there were no fatalities in 5-person groups), and 97% for those in groups of 6 or more. If we combine these numbers with the findings from our study2 and Dr. Schrimpf's comment,1Schrimpf P. In response to risk of avalanche involvement in winter backcountry recreation by Zweifel et al. Wilderness Environ Med. In press.Google Scholar we conclude that a group's risk of being involved in an avalanche accident is higher for larger groups than for smaller groups and increases approximately according to group size, while survival chances also increase with group size. Hence, the risk of an individual being involved, or dying, in an avalanche accident is independent of group size. This has two main implications:1.Larger groups cause relatively more accidents than smaller groups. According to Harvey et al,3Harvey S. Rhyner H. Schweizer J. Lawinenkunde. Bruckmann Verlag GmbH, München, Germany2012Google Scholar we mentioned 5 different causes of increasing risk in large groups that are either related to snowpack properties or to communication and aspects of decision-making. Large groups should adopt strategies to reduce load on the snow cover (eg, spacing between single skiers or skiing steep slopes 1 by 1). They should also be aware that they are particularly prone to group decision pitfalls and use strategies to reduce this risk, such as the group check tool SOCIAL.4Zweifel B. SOCIAL−A group check tool. International Snow Science Workshop 2014, Proceedings. September 29–October 3, 2014; Banff, AB, Canada; 2014: 963–969.Google Scholar2.Backcountry users travelling by themselves or in small groups should be aware of lower survival chances (statistically) compared with larger groups and make decisions accordingly. Finally, recreationists should not forget that severe avalanche accidents not only affect the individual(s) involved in an avalanche, but also the physical and mental health of fellow group members.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».