Notice bibliographique
Résumé
ABSTRACT This study analyzes the uncertainty in the amount of electricity supply in solar power generation because actual sunshine duration is unknown in advance. In particular, the study considers how risk transfer systems such as insurance and derivatives affect the prevalence of solar power generation. Furthermore, we investigate how the electricity price in the feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme introduced in Japan in July 2012 relates to the prevalence of solar power generation. If additional revenue is larger than additional cost due to the application of a risk transfer system, we derive the following results from our economic model analysis. First, an increase in electricity price in the FIT scheme and in the expected amount of electricity supply and a decrease in the cost of solar panels increases the availability of a risk transfer system. Second, promoting the availability of a risk transfer system leads to increased solar power generation. JEL Classifications: G22, Q21, Q28 Keywords: solar power generation; risk transfer; feed-in tariff (FIT); economic model I. INTRODUCTION After the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, energy policy in Japan was changed drastically because of concerns about the safety of nuclear power plants. Subsequently, after September 2013, as of June 2015, all nuclear power plants in Japan were shut down. This situation has increased the attention towards renewable energy such as solar power, wind power, and geothermal power as sources of electric power. This is because electric power generation through renewable energy sources emits neither carbon dioxide nor radioactivity. However, according to the summary of press conference comments by chairman of the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan (May 23, 2014), the share of electric power generation in renewable energy except for hydroelectric power was only 2.2 percent in fiscal 2013. (1) In order to increase this share, the Japanese government started the feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme for renewable energy in July 2012. Under this scheme, Japanese electric power companies have to purchase electricity produced by renewable energy at a price predetermined by the government. According to the handout that used in the committee in the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (p.53), solar power generation in Japan has constituted the major share (more than 97 percent) of the increase in power generation from renewable sources. (2) Thus, solar power is the main source of renewable energy in Japan. There are many studies on solar power generation that focus on the FIT scheme in Japan. For example, Ayoub and Naka (2012) developed a simulation analysis for investigating the FIT scheme for renewable energies in Japan. Kosugi (2013) investigated financial support including the FIT scheme for increasing solar power generation in Japan. Since some of the issues related to solar power generation are not specific to Japan, several relevant studies examine them in many other countries. These include Rigter and Vidican (2010) (China), Topkaya (2012) (Turkey), Jacobs et al. (2013) (Latin America and Caribbean region), Tveten et al. (2013) (Germany), Martin and Rice (2013) (Australia), Tongsopit and Greacen (2013) (Thailand), and Moosavian et al. (2013), who discussed energy policies, including FIT schemes, in Australia, Canada, China, Japan, France, Germany, and U.S.A. The FIT scheme can remove the uncertainty in electricity price, because the price of electricity is fixed in the scheme. However, the amount of electricity generated by solar power is still uncertain because the actual duration of sunshine is unknown in advance. Therefore, despite the FIT scheme addressing the issue of uncertainty in electricity price, the uncertainty related to the amount of electricity supply persists. A possible method to cope with this uncertainty is to apply a risk transfer system such as insurance and derivatives. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,004 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,008 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».