Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The paper gives an analysis of the background, main trends, scenarios and factors of the long-term development of the world till 2030 which are exposed in forecasts of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in its report of 2012. A comparison of these forecasts with reality for recent years is given. The lack of a series of important events and tendencies in the world development is found in this report. Sometimes authors consider that fact as a forecast error in other cases as an attempt to place the USA and the consequences of their activity in a good light. Methodology of long-term forecasting of NIC is close to foresight. First of all the authors are interested in estimation of new role of the USA in changing World. They have constructed two global indexes of state power: one to estimate relative diplomatic power, the other to estimate relative material power. Forecasts were obtained with imitation computer model “International Futures” which included 6 relative dynamic sub-models with more than 2000 indicators on 70 states and regions of the world. It allowed consider different scenarios of development. Special part of the report was devoted to revolutionary technologies and economic growth. Many conclusions on demographic, urbanization trends, economic growth, shortage of water etc. are realistic. Weights of Russia, China, Japan in world economy are diminishing. China will leave behind the USA economically until 2030. Crisis of Eurozone and its disintegration are discussed in the report. Really, the consequences of “Color revolutions” and “Arabian spring” in which the USA undoubtedly took part are not estimated properly. The role of the USA in many cases as a factor of peace and development is overestimated. Thesis about “damping of Islamic terrorism” is not true. Problem of Ukraine isn’t even mentioned. Crisis of Eurozone with millions refugees is underestimated. Non-controllable Islamic migration into Europe was not predicted. Disintegration of 15 countries is pointed out as possible. However, this list doesn’t contain the Great Britain, Canada and other countries. As it is known, 29 American states want to leave the USA peacefully. Anti-Russian sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions, new groups BRICS, TIKKS are not taken into account. Consequences of shale revolution were mistaken. New integration and disintegration processes are going. Divergence of forecasts and reality is inevitable. In some cases it is due to quick changes of the world and in others due to subjective point of view of the forecaster.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».