Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Editor's column ExxonMobil’s latest long-term energy outlook paints a generally robust picture for oil and natural gas despite the steep fall in hydrocarbon prices and cuts in capital spending. The outlook predicts that the oil and gas share of the energy market will grow and that renewable energy sources will remain only a small share of the total picture. Oil will continue to be the world’s largest energy source, with demand for oil and other liquids growing by 20% from 2014 to 2040, according to ExxonMobil’s The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Coal, which is currently the globe’s second-largest fuel, will decline from providing 25% to 20% of total energy demand as industry uses more fuels with lower CO2 emissions. Natural gas use will increase as it replaces coal as second in consumption. The outlook belies shorter-term predictions for the oil and gas market, which continue to forecast a tough year ahead. IHS CERA believes North American independents will need further capital spending cuts to align spending with cash flow. An analysis of 44 North American E&P companies shows that those firms need to cut spending by another USD 24 billion, or 30%, to maintain a healthy fiscal balance. E&P companies cut their 2016 spending budgets sharply from the previous year, but the price of oil has fallen sharply since the fourth quarter of 2015. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie predicts “another volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous year” with only the most robust or strategically important projects going forward. It projects that exploration spending will be only half of its 2014 peak. The lack of new investment and aging, high-cost fields in some regions will be a challenge for operators, but there are some bright spots for potential investment, especially offshore Mexico and Iran. Wood Mackenzie offered several predictions and milestones to watch for during the rest of the year. “Meaningful” increases in production from Iran are not likely as the country offers new contract terms for upstream projects. Crude exports should increase to about 400,000 B/D as shut-in wells are brought back on stream. Saudi Arabia will maintain current production levels so as not to lose market share to Iran. Declines in spending will hit Africa hard. Output will stagnate in Angola and Nigeria due to its aging fields, high production costs, and lack of investment. North Sea activity also will decline because of lower spending. Rationalization is likely as well as merger and acquisition interest. But production in Russia will maintain current levels of 10.7 million B/D despite the drop in oil prices. In North America, the inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells is at an all-time high. Wood Mackenzie predicts that the draw down on these wells will remain flat compared with 2015 through the first part of this year but will increase significantly in the second half. US Gulf of Mexico deepwater production will reach a new high with an additional 250,000 BOE/D coming on line. This reflects projects that have been in development for years. Mexico’s deepwater bidding round of 10 blocks primarily in the Perdido fold belt will be successful. The acreage prospectivity and favorable contract terms will contribute to its most successful bid round to date. JPT
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».