A South African softwood sawtimber supply chain case study
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Résumé
Supply chain management principles were analysed by investigating the effects of smaller-scale and incremental interventions in a forest-to-mill value chain on financial returns and forest resource use in an Eastern Cape case study area. Three previous studies provided input by determining fibre balances, a terrain factor, and primary and secondary transport travel speeds and efficiencies. Network analysis, combined with raster-based GIS, analysed different primary and secondary transport scenarios. The forest road network was repeatedly refined through theoretical removal of lower-class roads and subsequent upgrades of remaining roads, and the timber resource flowed over the remaining road network to the mill. Four road networks, including the existing and unrefined network, were studied. With sequentially improved secondary transport travel speeds, primary transport efficiency and fibre use, the net financial returns of the various scenarios were determined by applying discounted cash flow analysis (NPV). To address all possible combinations, 144 unique scenarios were created. The highest NPV achieved was R300.8 million associated with a highly upgraded road network and associated fast secondary transport speeds, cable skidder extraction, motor-manual felling and cross-cutting at the merchandising yard, all factors at optimal performance. The lowest NPV was R40.4 million associated with a simplified road network, low secondary transport speeds, cable skidder extraction, mechanised felling, and roadside merchandising and at status quo systems performance. Examination of individual factors found systems performance, secondary transport speeds and road network had the greatest influence, with systems performance and fibre losses providing the largest impact. Secondary transport speed followed as nine of the top 10 NPV scenarios were achieved with the highest possible road design speeds. Higher-class networks consistently outperformed the baseline and simplified scenarios. Harvesting system had limited effect. When operating at peak performance, using a merchandising yard becomes a better choice. There was no clear difference in terms of felling method or skidder type. It is clear that the optimised use of potentially the most productive machine, for example in one system, does not provide the best final results and that it is the basic harmonisation of all factors that must be taken into account. As in all three previous and related studies, the human element played a role.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle