Express Entry as a Hybird Model of Economic Immigration Policy: Lessons from Australia's SkillSelect
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Competition for skilled immigrants is increasing as OECD countries experience ageing demographics and increased competition from countries out of which skilled individuals would have traditionally emigrated. Under these conditions, the importance of establishing effective selection criteria for selecting candidates for immigration has increased and settlement countries are beginning to converge around a similar hybrid immigration model. The move to a hybrid demand-supply immigration model by settlement countries assumes that that the selection criteria are effective predictors for positive labour market outcomes for immigrants. However, despite policy changes to improve the labour market outcomes for immigrants through better selection criteria, outcomes have consistently been poorer than for the Canadian-born population. Canada’s recent implementation of its Express Entry Expression of Interest process marks the culmination of its shift in economic immigration policy to a hybrid demand-supply model. The heavily weighted selection criteria of an arranged offer of employment or a provincial nomination now outweighs the impact of the score in the points based system for assessing human capital that most immigrants are likely to achieve. Its weighting reflects those factors that are considered most effective at ensuring positive labour market outcomes for immigrants while also meeting employer demand for specific skills shortages. As Express Entry was partly modelled on Australia’s SkillSelect (implemented in 2012) this paper uses a comparative case study to examine the selection criteria and policy levers of SkillSelect and the associated labour market outcomes of immigrants. Using data from two cohorts of the Continuous Survey of Australia’s Migrants (CSAM) from 2011 and 2013, it uses a tabular difference-in-difference analysis to estimate the effect of the policy on employment rates and median earnings. The findings show that there appears to be a positive effect on rates of highly-skilled employment among immigrants subject to SkillSelect selection criteria. Although these findings require considerably more analysis, they do suggest some important policy implications for Canada. Australia collects detailed survey data about migrants that includes the individual’s visa class, data that has been used to assess the success of the SkillSelect selection criteria. For Canada to take full advantage of the flexibility and responsiveness built into Express Entry it also needs regularly conduct surveys that relates an immigrant’s immigration stream to their labour market outcomes. Measuring the economic success of immigrants and distinguishing between the immigration stream under which they entered would allow for a meaningful evaluation of the effectiveness of the Express Entry selection criteria.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,005 | 0,009 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,004 |
| Communication savante | 0,005 | 0,003 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,004 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,004 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,008 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».