Three Essays Assessing Global Value Chain Fragmentation on International Trade Using the World Input-Output Database
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The growing fragmentation of supply chains across countries have changed the way nations engage in international trade. Conventionally, studies have used data on exports to measure trade flows; however, the use of this type of data imposes many assumptions that might misrepresent the real world. For instance, the assumption that the supply chain of a product is confined in only the domestic country does not take into consideration the increasing number of foreign inputs needed to produce a final good. In this dissertation, I use the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), since this dataset allows one to track and decompose the so-called global value chain (GVC) of a product.\nThe first essay uses the WIOD to analyze the degree of competitiveness and integration of the manufacturing sector of Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. (North American countries –NAC) from 1995 to 2007. Competitiveness is the capacity of a country to increase its share of GVC income and GVC jobs. Greater integration with a region is defined as experiencing a growing rate of GVC income and GVC jobs from that specific region to meet domestic final demand of manufactured goods. I answer three main questions: (1) did the NAC lose global competitiveness in the manufacturing sector? This is ambiguous, since the manufacturing sector of NAC experienced a decrease in the share of GVC jobs, from 7.11% in 1995 to 5.79% in 2007. However, the share of labor income associated with those jobs increased. (2) Were the NAC successful at integrating with the ROW? Yes, the share of GVC jobs that the ROW contributed to the NAC manufacturing sector increased from 18.14% in 1995 to 29.66% in 2007; while the share of GVC labor income increased from 7.84% in 1995 to 9.60% in 2007. (3) Were the NAC successful at integrating with the region itself? No, the NAC have become less integrated with the NAC region itself.\nThe second essay uses the WIOD to derive the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) of the manufacturing sector of NAC for the years 1995 to 2009. ERPT is defined as the percentage change in export prices that is associated with a percentage change in the exchange rate. I am able to derive a measure that improves the estimates of the ERPT. In addition, I derive improved measures of marginal cost, product differentiation, and import share. Using a variance-weighted least-squares regression, I find that product differentiation and marginal cost have a positive and significant impact on ERPT, while the import share has a negative effect on the degree of ERPT.\nThe third essay uses the WIOD to derive a measure of vertical specialization (VS). VS measures the foreign value-added share in the output value of final manufacturing goods in a country. I use a dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) model to examine the effect of vertical specialization, exchange rate, and exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows between the United States and Canada and Mexico for the years 1995 to 2007. DOLS controls for the endogeneity between the dependent variable and vertical specialization. I find that the vertical specialization has a positive effect on trade flows when non-linearities are taken into consideration.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».