Convergence to Global Stagnation

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKI. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKPreliminary data on growth for the third quarter of 2012 from quarterly national accounts confirm that the three-year-old global economic recovery has entered an uneven adjustment pattern that is expected to result in stagnation during 2013-14. The Euro Area financial crisis led the divergent phase of the global business cycle in 2012 generating external spillovers onto other industrial countries, which when combined began to constrain economic growth in the emerging economies from central and eastern Europe to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.External spillover linkages work slowly via trade, financial channels, and international investment by means of business sentiment. In this global recovery, there were additional internal adverse dynamics from the structural negative forces of the bubble-led growth of the last decade, such as high unemployment with inflexible labor markets and unsustainable government debts from running huge deficits during above trend growth.The degree of business uncertainty, the most important factor of economic growth, was also elevated in 201 2 from conflicting and competing policies. Fiscal consolidation was renamed austerity and excessive printing of money essentially like thrown currency from helicopters was called easing. A major economic downturn is followed by hard times and changing behavior such as ineffectiveness of low, even zero, interest rates. Central banks i? the industrial countries continue to run rounds of quantitative easing and promise near-zero interest rates until 2015 to generate growth and jobs. In the emerging economies, monetary policies have shifted from tightening to easing.Nevertheless, the pace of global growth continues to slow down. The Euro Area is in recession and the U.S. economy is growing at decelerating rates with a high probability of entering a recession at the end of 2012 or the beginning of 2013. A weakening of growth has surfaced in many emerging market economies reflecting both external shocks and internal dynamic forces. As a result, we have further trimmed our baseline economic forecast for the world economy. In 2013, global output is now expected to grow by 2.5% from a 3.2% prediction made in our previous forecast. For 2014, we now expect global growth to modestly accelerate to 3.2%, which is 0.5% lower than our previous prediction.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted by the German Ifo Institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce, which was conducted in the third quarter of 2012. About 1,200 executives from 124 countries have indicated that the world's economic climate fell in the fourth quarter of 201 2 driven by less favorable assessments about both the current and future economic situation. The major findings of the fourth quarter's survey areas follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, fourth quarter of 201 2, to be below satisfactory levels, led by low levels on capital expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries to be worse than in the fourth quarter of 2011. Most important, regarding the future, executives expect economic conditions in the first quarter of 2013 to be slightly above those prevailing in the fourth quarter of 2012, but at a level consistent with stagnant economy.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and worse than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get slightly better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and significantly worse than a year ago; they were not very optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be modestly better and certainly below trend than in the fourth quarter of 2011. …

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