Europe's Real Demographic Challenge

PAGING THROUGH AMERICAN books or media reports on demographic change in Europe, one could conclude that the old continent is on its way to doom: Graying and shrinking, the Europeans sacrifice their occidental culture in favor of hordes of migrants from the south and the east. Walter Laqueur's book, The Last Days of Europe, pictures Europe as too decadent to reproduce--a place where only the uncultured masses, notably Muslim immigrants, have a considerable number of children. In other words, Europe is at demographic war with the rest of the world, and it can only lose. Of course, there is some truth in the basis figures (not necessarily in the conclusions) of these scenarios: Travel between Lisbon and Chisinau, the capital of tiny and poor Moldova, and you'll travel through countries where birthrates are low. In the European Union, women have 1.5 children on average, a number much too small to sustain a stable population. In 1957, when the European Union was founded, each of today's 27 EU members had fertility rates above 2.1 children per woman. What's more, the baby boomers are going to be replaced by a generation that is barely two thirds as large. How can these shrinking post-baby boomers generate the wealth needed to care for their aging parents and at the same time invest so much into innovative industries such that they can compete with the young and fertile populations on other continents? As all European nations age, some, such as Germany and Romania, have already started to shrink. Others will soon follow. Wherever fertility rates are appreciably below 2.1 there is no way, in the medium term, to reverse the trend toward natural population contraction. In 2008, eight out of 27 EU countries reported more deaths that births. Before mid-century, when the baby boomers will the out, a great number of nations will see dwindling population numbers. According to common population forecasts, the EU will lose some 50 million of its current inhabitants by the year 2050 through an excess of deaths over births--that is ten percent of today's inhabitants or roughly the populations of Poland and Greece combined. Most European countries will be able to achieve population growth, or even simply stability, only on the basis of immigration. [FIGURE 1 OMITTED] In fact, the natural losses will most certainly be compensated for by an equal number of immigrants over the next four decades, a figure that cannot be too disturbing for America or Canada, where almost everybody has a migration background. So despite low birthrates, EU-27's population will remain more or less constant until mid-century. From today's 500 million, it is estimated to peak at 5 20 million around 2035 and decline afterwards. As non-EU countries like Ukraine or Belarus are not likely to gain enough immigrants to compensate for the low fertility, Europe in total will definitely shrink. Europe's demographic share will also decline as all other continents continue to grow: the Americas will, and Asia will grow by about 30 percent. Africa's population will double by 2050. As a result, some scholars expect massive shifts in economic and military potential and significant security challenges to Europe over the next two decades. Europe: Demographic trendsetter ALL THIS MAKES Europe the pioneer of a demographic trend that, sooner or later, will reach most corners of the world. World population nearly quadrupled during the past century. And it still grows by about 230,000 heads per day. With a population of 6.8 billion and resource consumption and pollutant emissions far beyond the limits of sustainability, humankind has reached a size at which it poses a danger to itself. This problem will increase as world population moves up to 9.4 billion in 2050. It was always clear that at some time, in some region of the world, the trend of demographic increase would reverse. Europe is the pioneer. And in this pioneering continent Germany is the frontrunner, because low fertility rates (two children replacing every three adults) have been common there for 35 years. …

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