Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2011
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The situation in the international economy has deteriorated in recent months. The eurozone debt crisis has not been resolved, rather it has spread, and now two major economies, France and Italy, are pursuing restrictive policies to contain budget deficits, in tandem with contractionary policies in Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland. As a consequence, output in the eurozone economy will perform very poorly and may contract year?on?year and is certainly likely to contract from the end of 2011 to the end of 2012. This will have the effect of making it difficult for all eurozone countries to meet fiscal targets. This outcome will also hamper the restructuring of the UK economy and reduce its growth prospects. The US economy now seems to have recovered from the poor performance that began in the fourth quarter of 2011. Given this very unfavourable background the Irish economy is likely to experience very limited growth ? less than 1 per cent for GDP and a fall in GNP next year. Three months ago the possibility of building on an improved performance in 2011 made us reasonably optimistic about growth in the economy and growth in employment. The deterioration in the eurozone economy makes that unlikely now, though the fiscal targets set for next year are achievable. If the eurozone were an economy with a fiscal and monetary authority, the present situation would call for an expansionary fiscal policy and a looser monetary policy accompanied by a realistic level of restructuring of the banking\nsystem. In the absence of such a structure, coordinated action is the obvious approach, yet the structures are not there to achieve this and the ECB has resolutely set its stance against a much more activist approach. The present situation contains elements reminiscent of policy during the Great Depression, when a mounting crisis was confronted by an orthodoxy that resulted in great poverty that could have been avoided. Without decisive intervention the eurozone economies will be seriously constrained, will grow very poorly and make the resolution of the debt crisis more difficult. We now expect export growth and the level of investment to be less in 2012 than previously forecast. Total final demand will grow only by about 1.9 per cent and domestic demand will fall again. Employment will weaken further and we expect the labour force to decline as participation rates fall and people emigrate. The Troika targets are likely to be realised this year, though perhaps not to the extent we had hoped. For 2012 the targets are also likely to be realised, in spite of the deteriorating international situation.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».