Prediction of early breast cancer patient survival using ensembles of hypoxia signatures

Abstract Background Biomarkers are a key component of precision medicine. However, full clinical integration of biomarkers has been met with challenges, partly attributed to analytical difficulties. It has been shown that biomarker reproducibility is susceptible to data preprocessing approaches. Here, we systematically evaluated machine-learning ensembles of preprocessing methods as a general strategy to improve biomarker performance for prediction of survival from early breast cancer. Results We risk stratified breast cancer patients into either low-risk or high-risk groups based on four published hypoxia signatures (Buffa, Winter, Hu, and Sorensen), using 24 different preprocessing approaches for microarray normalization. The 24 binary risk profiles determined for each hypoxia signature were combined using a random forest to evaluate the efficacy of a preprocessing ensemble classifier. We demonstrate that the best way of merging preprocessing methods varies from signature to signature, and that there is likely no ‘best’ preprocessing pipeline that is universal across datasets, highlighting the need to evaluate ensembles of preprocessing algorithms. Further, we developed novel signatures for each preprocessing method and the risk classifications from each were incorporated in a meta-random forest model. Interestingly, the classification of these biomarkers and its ensemble show striking consistency, demonstrating that similar intrinsic biological information are being faithfully represented. As such, these classification patterns further confirm that there is a subset of patients whose prognosis is consistently challenging to predict. Conclusions Performance of different prognostic signatures varies with pre-processing method. A simple classifier by unanimous voting of classifications is a reliable way of improving on single preprocessing methods. Future signatures will likely require integration of intrinsic and extrinsic clinico-pathological variables to better predict disease-related outcomes. Abbreviations AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve GCRMA GeneChip Robust Multi-array Average HG-U133A Affymetrix Human Genome U133A HG-U133 Plus 2.0 Affymetrix Human Genome Plus 2.0 HR hazard ratio MAS5 MicroArray Suite 5.0 MBEI Model-base Expression Index NSCLC Non-small cell lung cancer RF Random forest ROC receiver operator characteristic RMA Robust Multi-array Average

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