Quarterly Analysis Of Gross Domestic Product Evolution - Significance Of Growth Rate
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Résumé
In this article, the authors propose to realize an analysis of the concrete results obtained by Romania in the first quarter of 2017. It is a quarterly analysis of the gross domestic product with a few elements that can help to more realistically forecast the evolution of this indicator of macroeconomic results, gross domestic product. The importance of studying the results achieved in the first quarter is also justified by the fact that it is the first in the governance program set for the period 2017-2020. The forecasts behind the substantiation of the income and expenditure budget were somewhat controversial. The National Forecasting Institute of Romania suggested the possibility of an increase of about 4.8% in 2017. Out of the European Union came results of a forecast at the level of the Union that led to a lower level of 3.8%. The program of measures aimed at an economic growth outlook of about 5.2% throughout the year 2017 and which, through the measures taken, led to a variant of economic growth based on consumption. In this context, the provisional results obtained and published by the National Institute of Statistics show that Romania gained 5.7%. This growth, based on the raw data series as well as the 5.6% increase based on the seasonally adjusted data series compared to the same quarter of 2016, is a positive fact. The authors compared comparatively the first-trimester result in parallel with that in the same period of 2015 and 2016, both in the gross series and the seasonally adjusted series, showing an increase. Compared to the last quarter of 2016, Romania achieved a growth rate of 1.7%. If we discuss the evolution of quarterly gross domestic product growth in the following quarters and then year-round using the chain-based index method, we can repro- duce that Romania will achieve a growth rate by the end of 2017 Compared with the previous year of about 6%. The authors interpret the data they have and graphically, being suggestive and highlighting a quarterly increase from 2010 constantly until the first quarter of 2017. The published data are used and the authors believe that in the context of higher foreign direct investment, the allocation of additional funds for investment and the higher access to EU funds, Romania can stabilize for the year 2017 and even for the following years a rate of Annual growth of around 5-5.5%. The study is argued and there are presented relevant data attesting the easy return of Romania’s economy. Of course, economic growth based on consumption is specific to the stage that our country is crossing, but on this background if announced measures will be taken and available resources will be available, we can appreciate that an increase in the living standard of the population Romania.
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