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Enregistrement W2765908527 · doi:10.21425/f5fbg12259

update: More uncertainty with BIOMOD

2012· article· en· W2765908527 sur OpenAlexaboutno aff
Niklaus E. Zimmermann

Notice bibliographique

RevueFrontiers of Biogeography · 2012
Typearticle
Langueen
DomaineEnvironmental Science
ThématiqueSpecies Distribution and Climate Change
Établissements canadiensnon disponible
Organismes subventionnairesnon disponible
Mots-clésBiological dispersalGeographyEcologyRange (aeronautics)Climate changeDisjunctBiotaEndemismPhysical geographyPopulationBiology

Résumé

récupéré en direct d'OpenAlex

ISSN 1948-6596 news and update The pattern-based analysis provided an op- portunity to test a variety of dispersal and refugia scenarios that have been proposed for the Pacific Northwest, because it has three categorical areas: coastal non-glaciated, southern interior non- glaciated, and northern interior glaciated. Species with the highest dispersal capacity had the largest ranges and were more likely to have dispersed to the northern interior glaciated (recently unglaci- ated) zone. The study also found that the north- ern interior zone had been colonized by species from both the coast and from further south in the interior. Less dispersive capable species showed more restricted range, including six endemic spe- cies from Idaho, which had not moved to the north. This last finding led the author to conclude that plant characteristics are likely an important component in the effort to determine what spe- cies may be able to successfully shift range across a fragmented landscape under future climate change. The author points to the importance of including phylogeographies in future work, but has done a remarkable job of identifying vulner- abilities of plant species to climate change using more traditional biogeographic techniques. Gavin, D.G. (2009) The coastal-disjunct mesic flora in the inland Pacific Northwest of USA and Canada: refugia, dispersal and disequilibrium. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 972-982. James H. Thorne Information Center for the Environment, Uni- versity of California at Davis, USA e-mail: jhthorne@ucdavis.edu http://ice.ucdavis.edu/people/jhthorne Edited by Lee Hannah update More uncertainty with BIOMOD Species distribution modeling (SDM) has grown in importance over the last decade to become a powerful tool in conservation planning, global change forecasting, ecological hypothesis testing, and characterization of niche properties in phy- logenetic analyses. Many scientists have contrib- uted to the conceptual, statistical and technical development of this field. While I believe that further development has asymptoted in many do- mains of SDM research, it is clear that BIOMOD is a significant contribution. A decade ago, we faced numerous uncer- tainties and limitations in building SDMs. Few sta- tistical techniques were available and no com- parative studies existed. Generalized Linear Mod- els were a standard method, and key issues in- cluded how best to fit response shapes, how to evaluate competing models, and what statistical methods to use to get “the best model” of a tar- get species. Climate change projections were usu- ally established by simply adding 2-4°C to annual mean temperature maps, and “the best model” was then projected into the future. BIOMOD, in its first version of 2003, was a huge step forward. It included four different statistical methods to model hundreds of species automatically. Further, it used a simple method to identify the model that best fit the general trend among the resulting models. At the same time modeling and forecasting of a range of scenarios, including the assessment of projection uncertainty, became an important aspect of research on climate change impacts. This has dramatically increased the demand for model building, model averaging, ensemble fore- casting, and analysis of complex output. We are no longer interested in identifying “the best model”, but rather the mean and variation of models – currently and when projected to the fu- ture. Ensemble forecasting is so complex that most of us will only include a fraction of the possi- ble uncertainty sources when modeling potential climate change effects upon species distribution patterns. Over the last 6 years BIOMOD has been developed, improved, and extended. It now offers © 2009 the authors; journal compilation © 2009 The International Biogeography Society — frontiers of biogeography 1.2, 2009

Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.

Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier

Prédiction distillée sur la base complète

Imitation des enseignants

Ni prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.

score de la tête « metaresearch » (Codex)0,000
score de la tête « metaresearch » (Gemma)0,000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aStatut de validation: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Catégories candidatesCharge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger)
Catégories consensuellesaucune
DomaineSignal candidat: aucune · Signal consensuel: aucune
Devis d'étudeSignal candidat: Observationnel · Signal consensuel: Observationnel
GenreSignal candidat: Empirique · Signal consensuel: Empirique
Score de désaccord entre enseignants0,139
Score d'incertitude au seuil0,995

Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie

CatégorieCodexGemma
Métarecherche0,0000,000
Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict)0,0000,000
Méta-épidémiologie (sens large)0,0000,000
Bibliométrie0,0000,001
Études des sciences et des technologies0,0000,000
Communication savante0,0000,000
Science ouverte0,0000,000
Intégrité de la recherche0,0000,000
Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger)0,0060,000

Scores machine (provisoires)

Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.

Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.

Tête enseignante Opus0,008
Tête enseignante GPT0,210
Écart entre enseignants0,203 · la distance entre les deux têtes enseignantes sur ce seul travail
Statut de validationscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle

Classification

machine, non validée

Prédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.

Devis d'étudeObservationnel
Domainenon disponible
GenreEmpirique

Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».

En bref

Citations0
Publié2012
Routes d'admission1
Résumé présentoui

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Même revueFrontiers of BiogeographyMême sujetSpecies Distribution and Climate ChangeTravaux en français237 207