A probabilistic risk assessment for the Kirtland's warbler potentially exposed to chlorpyrifos and malathion during the breeding season and migration
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Two organophosphate pesticides, chlorpyrifos and malathion, are currently undergoing reregistration in the United States and were recently used by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) as case studies to develop a national procedure for evaluating risks to endangered species. One of the endangered bird species considered by the USEPA was the Kirtland's warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii). The Kirtland's warbler is an endangered migratory species that nests exclusively in young jack pine stands in Michigan and Wisconsin, and winters in the Bahamas. We developed probabilistic models to assess the risks of chlorpyrifos and malathion to Kirtland's warblers during the breeding season and the spring and fall migrations. The breeding area model simulates acute and chronic exposure and risk to each of 10 000 birds over a 60-d period following initial pesticide application. The model is highly species specific with regard to the foraging behavior of Kirtland's warblers during the breeding season. We simulated the maximum application rate and number of applications allowed on the labels for representative use patterns that could be found within 3 km of the breeding areas of Kirtland's warbler. The migration model simulates 10 000 birds during the course of their 12- to 23-d migration between their breeding area and the Bahamas. The model takes advantage of more than a century of observations of when, where, and for how long Kirtland's warblers forage in different habitats during the course of their migration. The data indicate that warblers only infrequently stop over in habitats that could be treated with chlorpyrifos and malathion. The breeding area and migration models resulted in predictions of very low acute and chronic risk for both pesticides to Kirtland's warblers. These results were expected, given that field observations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler has dramatically increased in abundance in recent decades. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:252–269. © 2017 SETAC Key Points Probabilistic exposure models were developed to assess the risks of chlorpyrifos and malathion to Kirtland's warblers during the breeding season and during spring and fall migrations. The migration model simulated birds during their 13- to 23-d migrations, and the breeding area model simulated birds for a 60-d period following pesticide application in proximity to their breeding habitats. Using realistic and species-specific models and inputs resulted in predictions of very low acute and chronic risk of chlorpyrifos and malathion to Kirtland's warblers. These results were expected, given that the Kirtland's warbler has dramatically increased in abundance in recent decades despite widespread usage of chlorpyrifos and malathion.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».