Extremal dependence between temperature and ozone over the continental US
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract. The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasize the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. Through the use of extreme value theory and other statistical methods, tropospheric surface ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence are analyzed over the United States during the summer months (JJA) using measurements and simulations of the present and future climate and chemistry. Five simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) reference experiment using specified dynamics (REFC1SD) were analyzed: the CESM1 CAM4-chem, CHASER, CMAM, MOCAGE and MRI-ESM1r1 simulations. In addition, a 25-year present-day simulation branched off the CCMI REFC2 simulation in the year 2000 and a 25-year future simulation branched off the CCMI REFC2 simulation in 2100 were analyzed using CESM1 CAM4-chem. The last two simulations differed in their concentration of carbon dioxide (representative of the years 2000 and 2100) but were otherwise identical. In general, regions with relatively high ozone extremes over the US do not occur in regions of relatively high temperature extremes. A new metric, the spectral density, is developed to measure the joint extremal dependence of ozone and temperature by evaluating the spectral dependence of their extremes. While in many areas of the country ozone and temperature are highly correlated overall, the correlation is significantly reduced when examined on the higher end of the distributions. Measures of spectral density are less than about 0.35 everywhere, suggesting that at most only about a third of the time do extreme temperatures coincide with extreme ozone. Two regions of the US have the strongest measured extreme dependence of ozone and temperature: the northeast and the southeast. The simulated future increase in temperature and ozone is primarily due to a shift in their distributions, not to an increase in their extremes. The locations where the right-hand side of the temperature distribution does increase (by up to 30 %) are consistent with locations where soil–moisture feedback may be expected. Future changes in the right-hand side of the ozone distribution range regionally between +20 % and −10 %. The location of future increases in the high-end tail of the ozone distribution are weakly related to those of temperature with a correlation of 0.3. However, the regions where the temperature extremes increase are not located where the extremes in ozone are large, suggesting a muted ozone response.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».