Effect of Seasonal Variation on Clinical Outcome in Patients with Chronic Conditions: Analysis of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) National Telehealth Trial
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Seasonal variation has an impact on the hospitalization rate of patients with a range of cardiovascular diseases, including myocardial infarction and angina. This paper presents findings on the influence of seasonal variation on the results of a recently completed national trial of home telemonitoring of patients with chronic conditions, carried out at five locations along the east coast of Australia. OBJECTIVE: The aim is to evaluate the effect of the seasonal timing of hospital admission and length of stay on clinical outcome of a home telemonitoring trial involving patients (age: mean 72.2, SD 9.4 years) with chronic conditions (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease coronary artery disease, hypertensive diseases, congestive heart failure, diabetes, or asthma) and to explore methods of minimizing the influence of seasonal variations in the analysis of the effect of at-home telemonitoring on the number of hospital admissions and length of stay (LOS). METHODS: Patients were selected from a hospital list of eligible patients living with a range of chronic conditions. Each test patient was case matched with at least one control patient. A total of 114 test patients and 173 control patients were available in this trial. However, of the 287 patients, we only considered patients who had one or more admissions in the years from 2010 to 2012. Three different groups were analyzed separately because of substantially different climates: (1) Queensland, (2) Australian Capital Territory and Victoria, and (3) Tasmania. Time series data were analyzed using linear regression for a period of 3 years before the intervention to obtain an average seasonal variation pattern. A novel method that can reduce the impact of seasonal variation on the rate of hospitalization and LOS was used in the analysis of the outcome variables of the at-home telemonitoring trial. RESULTS: Test patients were monitored for a mean 481 (SD 77) days with 87% (53/61) of patients monitored for more than 12 months. Trends in seasonal variations were obtained from 3 years' of hospitalization data before intervention for the Queensland, Tasmania, and Australian Capital Territory and Victoria subgroups, respectively. The maximum deviation from baseline trends for LOS was 101.7% (SD 42.2%), 60.6% (SD 36.4%), and 158.3% (SD 68.1%). However, by synchronizing outcomes to the start date of intervention, the impact of seasonal variations was minimized to a maximum of 9.5% (SD 7.7%), thus improving the accuracy of the clinical outcomes reported. CONCLUSIONS: Seasonal variations have a significant effect on the rate of hospital admission and LOS in patients with chronic conditions. However, the impact of seasonal variation on clinical outcomes (rate of admissions, number of hospital admissions, and LOS) of at-home telemonitoring can be attenuated by synchronizing the analysis of outcomes to the commencement dates for the telemonitoring of vital signs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12613000635763; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=364030&isReview=true (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/ 6xLPv9QDb).
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,006 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».