Developing adaptation strategies for forest management under uncertain future climate
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Bioclimate envelope models are widely used to project potential species habitat under changing climate. Conceptually, these models are also well suited to match natural resource management practices to new climatic realities, for example by guiding species choice in reforestation programs. Nevertheless, uncertainty due to a variety of causes has so far limited the practical application of bioclimate envelope models. The goal of this thesis is to examine sources of uncertainty, to reduce uncertainty if possible, and to develop methodology to systematically deal with the remaining variability in model projections. Secondly, this thesis develops practical climate change adaptation strategies for the forestry sector in western Canada. This requires answering what species should be used for reforestation for a particular site, and subsequently selecting planting stock of the species that is best adapted to current and anticipated environments. Using a novel approach to partition variance in results from multiple model runs, climate data were identified as arguably the most important source of uncertainty. Variation was primarily caused by different general circulation models, followed by different emission scenarios. Also, the method used to interpolate current weather station data was an important contributor to uncertainty at specific locations. Other sources of uncertainty were the choice of predictor variables and different bioclimate envelope modeling methods, which primarily contributed to uncertainty through interaction effects. For example, different modeling methods provided similar habitat projections for western Canada on average, but under certain climate change scenarios their results differed markedly. Given the large uncertainties in model projections, it is important to remember that ultimately, climate change adaptation has to be guided by climate trends that actually materialize. A considerable portion of this thesis therefore analyzes climate trends in western Canada over the past century. In a case study for aspen, it is shown that the combined information from multiple bioclimate envelope model runs, climate trends that have already materialized, and observed climate change impacts can make a strong case for implementing adaptation strategies in central Alberta. Amendments to aspen reforestation practices are proposed, avoiding the use of the species in areas where it is likely to lose habitat in the future, and recommending movement of planting stock so that it is reasonably well adapted under a range of future climate scenarios.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».