Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Editor's column All eyes in the upstream continue to be on the growth in unconventional production, particularly in the US. But the offshore arena may be making a quiet comeback, at least in the near term. The US Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Latin America, and other spots have seen renewed interest of late, as operators enforce capital discipline to make these expensive projects feasible given the current price climate. Many offshore megaprojects were cut or scaled back when oil prices began to drop sharply in 2014 and, while global offshore output has been steady, it has not grabbed the head-lines that surging shale production has. World offshore output has remained about 27 million B/D over the past decade. US Gulf of Mexico production, which is rising, made up a quarter of US output in the early 2000s but captures only 16% of the total now with the rise in unconventionals. US Gulf of Mexico production in 2017 rose to 1.65 million B/D, the highest annual level on record, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). It is expected to increase this year and in 2019, maintaining record highs. Output will creep to 1.7 million B/D in 2018 and then to 1.8 million B/D in 2018, according to the EIA. This is due mainly to projects that were sanctioned before the price downturn and went forward in 2016 and 2017. The EIA says that seven deepwater fields will start production this year and another three will start up the following year. Shell will begin production from three fields over the period—Gotcha, Rydberg, and Kaikias. Hess and LLOG both will start up two fields, and Stone Energy and Apache will bring one field each online. An offshore auction by the US government in March, the largest for drilling prospects off the US Gulf Coast in history, attracted only modest interest from operators, proving that they are still wary of market conditions. The bidding was for 77 million acres of deep- and shallow-water tracts. Interest offshore Mexico and Brazil remains high. Brazil’s offshore auction in late March brought winning bids from ExxonMobil, Wintershall, Chevron, Shell, BP, Statoil, and Qatar Petroleum. Several operators said their break-even price for offshore projects is now under $50/bbl, well below where prices were trading in mid-April. The success of Brazil’s auction was not only because of rising oil prices and better capital discipline among operators, but also changes in Brazil regulatory laws that made the projects more attractive. That followed a deepwater auction in Mexico earlier this year that saw aggressive winning bids from Shell, which snatched up nine blocks, as well as Petronas and Qatar Petroleum. But offshore production will not catch US onshore output, which continues to outpace expectations despite fears of infrastructure bottlenecks and people shortages. Total US production will reach 11 million B/D this year, a whole year earlier than projected in March, the EIA said in April. Output is averaging 10.2 million B/D so far this year. The EIA expects US production to reach 11.18 million B/D next year.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».