Induced seismicity research project: accomplishments and looking forward
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The development of unconventional oil and gas in North America has caused a significant increase of seismicity in areas of intense injection operations, including both hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal. These induced earthquakes have attracted considerable media attention due to their potential seismic hazards. In 2012, NRCan initiated the Induced Seismicity Research (ISR) Activity as part of the Shale Gas Research Project, under the Environmental Geoscience Program, to investigate the possible relationship between hydraulic fracturing (HF) of shale gas and the changing pattern of local seismicity. In 2015, the activity was expanded to a Project to include studies of all injection-related seismic events. NRCan's ISR Project has three major tasks. The first is to improve real-time earthquake-monitoring capability in major shale gas basins where the station coverage of regional seismograph network is sparse. The second is to establish the baseline of regional seismic pattern (i.e., the pre-development reference line) for places where the development potential of unconventional oil and gas is deemed high in the foreseeable future. The third is to conduct targeted studies on significant induced events to understand the relationship between their seismogenesis and man-made operations. In collaborations with many partners, new broadband seismograph stations have been installed in BC, AB, NB, SK, QC, NT, and YT. Studies of local seismicity before, during, and after HF operations have been completed for the northeast BC and western AB, the Moncton and Sussex areas (southern NB), and the Norman Wells area of the central Mackenzie Valley (NT). Regional earthquake baseline is also established for the areas of St. Lawrence Valley and Anticosti Island, QC. An increase of local seismicity in BC and AB is spatially and temporarily correlated with the peak period of injection operations associated with shale gas development. Injection volume appears to play a more important role than injection pressure in causing induced events. No abnormal seismicity can be observed when the injection volume is small. Research results of the largest hydraulic fracturing-induced earthquake to date (the August 17, 2015, Mw 4.6, northern Montney earthquake) indicate that the peak ground acceleration can be as high as 17% g at an epicentral distance of 5 km, suggesting that seismic hazards due to induced seismicity should not be overlooked. Future efforts of NRCan's ISR include the delineation of seismogenic patterns of injection-induced earthquakes and their implications for regional short- and long-term seismic hazards, detailed investigations of induced earthquake source characteristics with a multi-disciplinary approach, and the development and establishment of quantitative models to enhance and improve regulatory performances.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,029 | 0,013 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,003 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,007 | 0,003 |
| Science ouverte | 0,003 | 0,007 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,004 | 0,005 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,009 | 0,012 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».