Future climate narratives: knowledge informing climate change adaptation
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
In the current era, recognized by some as the Anthropocene, consequences from climate change are affecting ecosystems, societies and economies; making it vital to enact adaptation measures to manage impacts that cannot be avoided. Significant resources and attention have been invested to improve climate knowledge and its communication on a global level, which is essential for adaptation. However, some facility with prospection, or future thinking is also needed to plan for uncertain and future-oriented risks. Future thinking is a cognitive task initiated by individuals who may be engaged in planning for their own family or community. Such autonomous adaptation is not well studied but may have a profound effect on the future trajectory of both climate and society. Therefore, this research focused on what future climate narratives are being constructed and shared by those engaged in working with climate change knowledge; and to share those more broadly. In this research, interviews with Australian and Canadian professionals who worked with climate change in research, policy, and practice were analysed to gauge in what way their climate knowledge was linked to autonomous adaptation in personal circles. A novel Future Climate Narrative (FCN) typology was developed as a structural guide for qualitative analysis, informed by literature relating to future thinking, climate change adaptation and narrative communication. Consequently, inductive thematic analysis identified four main climate change adaptation narratives focused on: Distance, Vulnerability, Agency, and Change. The research finds that even well-informed professionals who are willing to address climate change in public, are reluctant to discuss the topic in personal and social circles; instead, engaging in Distance Narratives that position climate issues as affecting future generations and faraway lands. Participants made binary assessments when using Vulnerability and Agency Narratives to depict threats as either negligible, due to high social capacity to adapt and so requiring no additional personal agency; or as overwhelming, if that social net was insufficient and therefore, personal agency would be insignificant in the face of global change. Neither assessment motivated improving personal agency to adapt to climate change. In contrast, the few participants who engage in Change Narratives express a sense of personal agency to enable transformation as a response to expected disruptions and display a facility to mentally link with the past to inform the future. However, the incompatibility of the Change and Distance Narratives creates a barrier to sharing plans for autonomous adaptation in social circles. To develop well informed and well-shared climate change adaptation narratives, old understandings need to be updated with increased focus on future thinking to continually imagine and re-imagine adaptive behaviours. Otherwise, possible benefits from current adaptive advantages may not be realized. Considering autonomous adaptation to climate change, the convergent contexts of climate change, the imagined future and shared personal narratives chart a small but growing field of academic inquiry, to which this research contributes.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,012 | 0,017 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,003 | 0,004 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,011 | 0,019 |
| Communication savante | 0,009 | 0,014 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,010 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,004 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».