Does Strategies of Industrial Development Cause Spatial Convergence: Evidences from Changsanjiao, Zhusanjiao and Huanbohai of China EST CE QUE LES STRA T EGIES DU DEVELOPPEMENT INDUSTRIEL PROVOQUERONT LA CONVERGENCE SPATIALE: LES EVIDENCES DE LA ZONE TRIANGULAIRE, ZHUSANJIAO ET HUANBOHAI DE CHINE

Abstract Three topics, convergence of the economic influences of regional industrial development strategies to the economic development, and effects in regional are studied in the empirical analysis. Spatial panel data model and the nonnested tests of spatial structure are first used in the studies of China cities' spatial structures. Empirical results show there are β-convergences in Changsanjiao and Huanbohai districts during 1990-1998 and the adjustments of the regional industrial development strategies adapting to the regional endowments play important parts in the economic growth. Meanwhile, the growths of the cities in the three districts have significant spatial effects that cities with similar per capita GDP levels promote each other in their growth processes. Key Words: Spatial convergence; Strategies of regional industrial development; Spatial effects Resume Il y a trois themes, qui sont convergence de la croissance economique, influences de strategies regionales en matiere de developpement industriel au developpement economique, et effets spatiaux de la croissance regionale sont etudies dans l'analyse empirique. Les donnees de la Spatiale en modele de panel modele et les tests non emboites de la structure spatiale sont d'abord utilisees dans les etudes de structures spatiales de la Chine des villes. Les resultats empiriques montrent qu'il ya des convergences dans La Zone triangulaire et la zone de Huanbohai au cours de 1990-1998 et les ajustements des strategies regionales de developpement industriel a s'adapter a des dotations regionales jouent des roles importants dans la croissance economique. Pendant ce temps, les croissances des villes dans les trois districts ont d'importants effets spatiaux que les villes avec des niveaux similaires par PIB par habitant de promouvoir les uns des autres dans leurs processus de croissance. Mots Cles: Convergence spatiale; Strategies de developpement industriel regional; Effets spatiaux (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.) INTRODUCTION The topic that whether China's economic growth has convergence according to neoclassic theory has been analyzed in a lot of papers. Nevertheless, most of these studies focus on the data of provinces while the cities have not been paid much attention. The accepted conclusion about convergence between provinces in China is as follows: Convergence of economic growth happened before 1990, and the provinces diverged from each other after that. Meanwhile, in the east, middle, and west provinces, there are conditional ^-convergences separately. That is to say, China's provinces have club convergences (see Lin & Liu, 2003; Liu, Wei & Li, 2004). Some papers tried to give explanations why the club convergences happen. Cai & Du (2000) argued that human capital was the most important one. Peng (2005) made an empirical analysis about the TFP and the divergence of these provinces' growth. Fan and Zhang (2003) pointed out that the differences of labor payments could give an explanation. The empirical results cannot give explanations about two problems. One is the lack of systematic analysis about the reason why the convergence happens (see Liu, 2001). The papers focus on the differences at the beginning of the development rather than the process, which gives rise the lack of discussion about why there is or is not convergence. The other is the lack of the spatial analysis about the process of growth, while regions close to each other have positive or negative spatial effects. To answer the first question, Lin (2002a, 2002b) points out, according to the neoclassical theory' assumption that the enterprises have internal viability, theories cannot give explanation about the transforming nations, including China, not having convergence during their developing efforts. Different level of privatization, the inequality of distribution of the FDI across provinces, division of the markets and the huge gap of the investments between the east and the west of China cannot offer a convincing story why the disparity of the east and the west China keep growing (see Lin & Liu, 2003). …

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