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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Judy Feder, contains highlights of paper SPE 189823, “Machine Learning Applied To Optimize Duvernay Well Performance,” by Braden Bowie, SPE, Apache, prepared for the 2018 SPE Canada Unconventional Resources Conference, Calgary, 13–14 March. The paper has not been peer reviewed. This paper discusses how machine learning by use of multiple linear regression and a neural network was used to optimize completions and well designs in the Duvernay shale. The methodology revealed solutions that could save more than $1 million per well and potentially deliver an improvement in well performance of greater than 50%. The work flow described rigorously analyzes the relationships between a significant number of well-completion variables, predicts results, and performs optimizations for ideal outcomes. The work flow is not Duvernay-specific and can be applied to other basins and formations. Introduction A fundamental problem for machine learning in many industries is that a responding variable is controlled not by one but by a number of predictor variables. Inferring the relationship between the responding variable and the predictor variables is of key importance. Interactions between predictor variables and noise in the data complicate matters further. This problem can be solved with multiple linear regression or a neural network, both of which use all of the predictor variables together. However, care must be taken to obtain a model that is truly predictive and not merely a result of overfitting the data. In unconventional oil and gas reservoirs, well performance generally is characterized either at the well level by detailed technical work such as rate-transient analysis, microseismic, and other techniques or at the field level by statistical methods with ranges for production performance. Refinement of this statistical interpretation generally involves normalizing for only one or two key parameters, such as lateral length or tonnage. Additionally, wells usually are grouped or excluded entirely from the population for various reasons, such as substandard completion design. This introduces bias in the selected wells and reduces the sample size. As a result, this approach is limited to the key variables identified and the bias introduced by the well population selected. The idea of using a neural network has been executed successfully in the past to optimize completions. However, data sets were limited. Recently, the use of machine learning has grown substantially by integrating more variables in the analysis, which reduces reservoir uncertainty. The goal of the work flow described in the complete paper is to improve on previous methodology by rigorously and statistically refining estimates for well performance without excluding wells and to recommend which variables are and are not influencing well performance. The goal was accomplished through machine learning in the form of a multiple linear regression and a neural network, comparing the results from both.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle