Explanations for the Current Crisis in Venezuela: A Clash of Paradigms and Narratives

Various developments at the outset of Nicolás Maduro's presidency set the stage for what has been called a "humanitarian crisis", consisting of hyperinflation, a sharp decline in national income, massive emigration, and acute political conflict and disorder.When Hugo Chávez went off to Cuba for the last time to seek cancer treatment in late 2012, Maduro as vice-president took charge of the government.During those months of political uncertainty, the exchange-control system that guided the nation's imports became largely non-functional as the black-market price for the dollar began to spiral out of control.The resultant inflation reached an estimated 150 000 per cent by 2018 and cut into purchasing power as wages failed to catch up.A second early development that signalled acute conflict and instability was the refusal of the opposition and the United States (US) government to recognise Maduro's triumph in the presidential elections following Chávez's death in March 2013.The increasingly hostile position of both these actors toward the Venezuelan government culminated in 2019 with the formation, in defiance of Maduro, of a parallel government headed by National Assembly president Juan Guaidó and its immediate recognition by Washington.Another problematic characteristic of the Maduro presidency that manifested itself at the start was his tendency to refrain from taking difficult but necessary measures and acting boldly and decisively to face pressing problems.Thus Maduro failed to act on charges, formulated by former insiders in 2014, that the nation had been bilked of twenty billion dollars through the manipulation of the exchange-control system, even though the president recognised the possible veracity of the accusation.Indeed, the increasing disparity between the official price that the government charged those whose request for dollars from the state was approved (in accordance with the exchangecontrol system) and the black-market price for dollars lent itself to corruption.As the disparity increased, so did the damage caused by Maduro's failure to modify or scrap the exchange-control system.In addition, in response to severe economic and political difficulties in mid-2014, Maduro promised a cabinet shakeup (what he called el gran sacudón), creating great expectations.Not only did he put off making the announcement for over a month, but he retained most of the key members of his administration.Finally, little over a year after Maduro assumed the presidency, international oil prices plummeted while Venezuela's oil output also declined significantly.Subsequently, oil prices began to recover but failed to come close to their pre-2014 levels, while production continued to decrease, partly as a result of US sanctions imposed on the state oil company, PDVSA.These developments -involving foreign intervention, leadership capacity, international oil prices and the exchange-control system -have given rise to diverse opinions regarding the root cause of the Venezuelan crisis.Different theories put the blame on different actors -either Maduro and those surrounding him, or the Venezuelan opposition and the US government, or Washington alone.The fact that each of these problems dates back to the beginning of the Maduro government, if not before, confuses the effort to determine which one came first and could thus be considered

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