An evaluation of winter hydroclimatic variables conducive to snowmelt and the generation of extreme hydrologic events in western Canada
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The frequency, magnitude, and atmospheric drivers of winter hydroclimatic conditions conducive to snowmelt in western Canada were evaluated. These hydroclimatic variables were linked to the mid-winter break-up of river ice that included the creation of a comprehensive database including 46 mid-winter river ice break-up events in western Canada (1950-2008) and six events in Alaska (1950-2014). Widespread increases in above-freezing temperatures and spatially diverse increases in rainfall were detected over the study period (1946-2012), particularly during January and March. Critical elevation zones representing the greatest rate of change were identified for major river basins. Specifically, low-elevation (500-1000 m) temperature changes dominated the Stikine, Nass, Skeena, and Fraser river basins and low to mid-elevation changes (700-1500 m) dominated the Peace, Athabasca, Saskatchewan, and Columbia river basins. The greatest increases in rainfall were seen below 700 m and between 1200-1900 m in the Fraser and at mid- to high-elevations (1500-2200 m) in the Peace, Athabasca, and Saskatchewan river basins. Daily synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were classified using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and corresponding hydroclimatic variables were evaluated. Frequency, persistence, and preferred shifts of identified synoptic types provided additional insight into characteristics of dominant atmospheric circulation patterns. Trend analyses revealed significant (p < 0.05) decreases in two dominant synoptic types: a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Ocean and adjacent trough of low pressure over western Canada, which directs the movement of cold, dry air over the study region, and zonal flow with westerly flow from the Pacific Ocean over the study region. Conversely, trend analyses revealed an increase in the frequency and persistence of a ridge of high pressure over western Canada over the study period. However, step-change analysis revealed a decrease in zonal flows and an increase in the occurrence of high-pressure ridges over western Canada in 1977, coinciding with a shift to a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation regime. A ridge of high pressure over western Canada was associated with a high frequency and magnitude of above-freezing temperatures and rainfall in the study region. This pattern is highly persistent and elicits a strong surface climate response. A ridge of high pressure and associated above-freezing temperatures and rainfall was also found to be the primary driver of mid-winter river ice break-up with rainfall being a stronger driver west of the Rocky Mountains and temperature to the east. These results improve our understanding of the drivers of threats to snowpack integrity and the generation of extreme hydrologic events.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».