Minimum wage impacts on wages, employment and hours in China

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate the causal effect of minimum wages (MWs) on the wages, employment and hours of migrant workers in China, and to show their inter-relatedness and how employers can offset some of the costs through subtle adjustments. This paper also illustrates the importance of disaggregating by region and sex. Design/methodology/approach Causal estimates are provided through difference-in-differences (DID) analysis, and robustness checks through propensity score matching. The analysis is based on micro data at the individual level from the household survey on migrant workers by the National Population and Family Planning Commission, combined with macro data regarding municipalities’ population, GDP and employment information based on the China Economic Information Network database. Findings MW increases for those paid by the month increased the earnings of both low-wage males and females. However, males tend not to experience an adverse employment effect because part of the cost increase is offset by employers increasing their monthly hours of work. Hours of work do not increase for females, so they experience an adverse employment effect. This highlights the importance of examining cost offsets such as increases in hours of work, as well as analyzing effects separately for males and females. Research limitations/implications The reason behind why employers offset some of the cost increase for males paid by the month by increasing their hours of work, but this cost-offsetting adjustment does not occur for females is uncertain. Social implications For workers paid by the month, employers can offset some of the cost increase by increasing their hours of work, leading to no reductions in employment. But this adjustment occurs only for males. Hours are not increased for females, but they experience reductions in employment. Clearly, MW increases have adverse effects either in the form of employment reductions (for females) or increases in hours of work for the same monthly pay (for males). Originality/value This paper provides causal estimates through DID analysis and robustness checks through Propensity Score Matching, and also indicates how employers can offset the cost of MW increases by increasing hours for those paid by the month, resulting in no adverse employment effect for such workers, but an adverse employment effect when such an adjustment does not occur.

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