Notice bibliographique
Résumé
PARTICIPANTS I Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; IHS = IHS Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU-EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP UBS = UBS Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah; US Bank = U.S. Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.Consensus expects the country's GDP growth rate to remain in the neighborhood of 2.3% well into the second quarter of 2016 even though real GDP declined (now at a negative 0.2%) in the first quarter of 2015. Specifically, Rajeev of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College of Business expects the U.S. economy to bounce back in second quarter because of WOW. The three components of WOW shaved off close to 2.5% of U.S. growth in the first quarter, Dhawan said. (WOW stands for weather, oil, and the world economy.) GDP report showed clear damage from these three factors.Dhawan mentioned further in his report that unusually cold weather in the Northeast during the first quarter resulted in a reduction of nondurable consumption goods (to a negative 0.3%), spending on utilities (heating) increased, and overall gasoline savings were wiped away. We've almost reached the bottom, with oil rig counts having dropped sharply with only a little bit to go, wrote Dhawan. But prices will not reach the heights of $120 a barrel anytime soon. I expect oil to start creeping up to $70/barrel by year's end and stay in that range for the coming year, he added. Finally, the world economy factor influenced the real GDP due to the dragging recovery of China (now at 7%, down from double digits) and the European Central Bank's bond-buying program. Chinese economy's slow-paced recovery affects the emerging markets because of supply chain connections. Eurozone's challenge is related to a potential Greek rescue operation and the trillion-dollar liquidity injection (bond buying program) by the European Central Bank, which results in negative government bond yields. Consequently, these factors led to a decline in exports (now at a 2.3% decline).CONSUMERSThe improvements in employmentand increases in consumers' personal disposable income positively affect consumption and, subsequently, growth in the economy. However, as pointed out, the weather factor, although a temporary one, played significant impact along with the changes in crude oil prices (now, at US$59/barrel). …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».