Notice bibliographique
Résumé
I. G LOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOK Available data and analysis of fi nancial markets indicate that while global recovery is on track at present, it has lost its momentum driven by a Euro Area adverse from sovereign debt crisis. probability of a double-dip scenario in global business cycle has increased following a four-quarter worldwide recovery from so-called by media Recession of 2008-09. A year ago, we entitled global outlook The Great Stagfl ation of 2010-2011. Some of our concerns raised then have materialized, including consequences of massive policy stimuli and expanded role of government, which would depress private investment, productivity, and jobs. In particular, we argued that the twin peaks of money and budget defi cits are expected to adversely aff ect global economy with one- to two-year lags, thus destabilizing again fi nancial markets, consumer spending, and investment. central forecast assumes that Euro shock will not dominate fundamental underpinnings of global business cycle and create strong adverse spillovers into emerging economies, developing world, and global trade. However, risk for a double dip has increased substantially with ongoing European fi nancial crisis. At this point, we thus assume that currency realignments and changes in policies will keep recovery on track. Following a strong advance by an annual rate of 3.6 percent in last quarter of 2009, preliminary data on fi rst quarter of 2010 show that combined output of member countries of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)-the 30 richest economies in world-has increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent from previous quarter. In fi rst quarter of 2010, real output rose by an annual rate of 3 percent in United States and by just 0.8 percent in 27-country European Union. Japanese economy, laggard of current cycle, expanded by 4.8 percent in fi rst quarter of 2010, which was fourth consecutive quarterly increase in country's real GDP. Looking at high-frequency indicators, e-forecasting 's global leading economic index-a composite index of 37 countrywide leading indicators that tracks economic conditions seven to nine months in advance-rose by 0.4 percent in March, lowest monthly increase since February 2009. signals from e-forecasting 's leading indicators display a slower pace in growth of future economic activity in Europe and Asia. growth slowdown evidence comes from North America, many European economies, India, China, Thailand, Singapore, and Taiwan. Signals of better-than-previously projected economic growth are evidenced in Japan, Korea, Australia, and South America. II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTS baseline forecast incorporates major fi ndings of World Economic Survey conducted by German Ifo Institute and Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce in second quarter of 2010. About 1,150 executives from 110 countries indicated that world's economic climate continued to improve in second quarter of 2010 and overall indicator of global performance is now above its long-term average. recent overall readings of worldwide survey are consistent with a continuation of global recovery at a slower pace in second half of 2010. major fi ndings of second quarter's survey are as follows: * Worldwide, executives evaluated current economic situation, second quarter of 2010, unfavorably with overall business conditions slightly below satisfactory levels. However, they found economic activity in their countries to be a great deal better than that of second quarter of 2009. Most important, regarding future, executives expect economic conditions in last two quarters of 2010 to be better than those that prevailed in second quarter of 2010. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».