Climate Change Impacts on Cold Season Runoff in the Headwaters of the Yellow River Considering Frozen Ground Degradation
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Climate change has effects on hydrological change in multiple aspects, particularly in the headwaters of the Yellow River (HWYR), which is widely covered by climate-sensitive frozen ground. In this study, the annual runoff was partitioned into four runoff compositions: winter baseflow, snowmelt runoff, rainy season runoff, and recession flow. In addition, the effects of global warming, precipitation change, and frozen ground degradation were considered in long-term variation analyses of the runoff compositions. The moving t-test was employed to detect change points of the hydrometeorological data series from 1961 to 2013, and flow duration curves were used to analyze daily runoff regime change in different periods. It was found that the abrupt change points of cold season runoff, such as recession flow, winter baseflow, and snowmelt runoff, are different from that of the rainy season runoff. The increase in winter baseflow and decrease in snowmelt runoff at the end of 1990s was closely related to global warming. In the 21st century, winter baseflow presented a larger relative increase compared to rainy season runoff. The correlation analyses indicate that winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff are mainly controlled by water-resource-related factors, such as rainy season runoff and the accumulated precipitation in cold season. To analyze the global warming impacts, two runoff coefficients—winter baseflow discharge rate (Rw) and direct snowmelt runoff coefficients (Rs)—were proposed, and their correlation with freezing–thawing indices were analyzed. The increase of Rw is related to the increase in the air temperature thawing index (DDT), but Rs is mainly controlled by the air temperature freezing index (DDF). Meanwhile, the direct snowmelt runoff coefficient (Rs) is significantly and positively correlated to DDF and has decreased at a rate of 0.0011/year since 1980. Under global warming, the direct snowmelt runoff (runoff increment between March to May) of the HWYR could decrease continuously in the future due to the decrease of accumulative snow in cold season and frozen ground degradation. This study provides a better understanding of the long-term runoff characteristic changes in the HWYR.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».