Lake-river and lake-atmosphere interactions in a changing climate over Northeast Canada
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Lakes influence the regional climate and hydrology in a number of ways and therefore they should be represented in climate models in a realistic manner. Lack of representation of lakes in models can lead to errors in simulated energy and water fluxes, for lake-rich regions. This study focuses on the assessment of the impact of climate change on lakes and hydrology as well as on the influence of lakes on projected changes to regional climate and surface hydrology, particularly streamflows, for Northeast Canada. To this end, transient climate change simulations spanning the 1950–2100 period are performed, with and without lakes, with the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), driven by the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) at the lateral boundaries for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. An additional CRCM5 simulation, driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) for the 1980–2010 period, is performed in order to assess performance and boundary forcing errors. Performance errors are assessed by comparing the ERA-Interim-driven simulation with available observation datasets, for the 1980–2010 period, for selected variables: 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, snow water equivalent and streamflow. The validation results indicate reasonable model performance over the study region. Boundary forcing errors are studied by comparing ERA-Interim-driven simulation with the one driven by CanESM2 for the current 1980–2010 period, to identify regions and seasons for which projected changes should be interpreted with extra caution. Comparison of projected changes from the CRCM5 simulations with and without lakes suggest that the presence of lakes results in a dampening of projected increases to 2-m air temperature for all seasons almost everywhere in the study domain, with maximum dampening of the order of 2 °C occurring during winter, mostly in the vicinity of the lakes. As for streamflows, projected increases to spring streamflows, based on the simulation with lakes, are found to be smaller than that without lakes and this is due to the storage effect of lakes. Similarly, lower decreases in summer streamflows in future climate are noted in the simulation with lakes due to the gradual release of snowmelt water stored in lakes. An additional CRCM5 transient climate change simulation with lakes and interflow, i.e. lateral flow in the soil layers, is compared with the simulation with lakes, but without interflow, to assess the impact of interflow on projected changes to regional climate and hydrology. Maximum interflow is projected to shift earlier in spring and the maximum interflow rate is expected to decrease by around 25 % in future. Results suggest that the impact of interflow on projected changes to precipitation, soil moisture and humidity are modest, even though the interflow intensity is changing noticeably in future climate. The impact of the interflow on projected changes to streamflows is in the range of ±50 m3/s. This study thus for the first time demonstrates the impact of lakes and interflow on projected changes to the regional climate and hydrology for the study region using a single regional modelling system.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».