Longitudinal Estimates of Child Poverty in the Maritimes versus the Rest of Canada

Abstract We use the first 3 cycles of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (1994, 1996 and 1998) to compare longitudinal estimates of child poverty in the Maritimes and the test of Canada. We compare how many children ever encountered poverty as well as how many children remained poor throughout the study period. We describe, as well, the extent of their income shortfall. This descriptive comparison is followed by a multivariate analysis of the correlates of child poverty in the two regions. In particular, we are interested in the role of labour markets as an explanation for the much higher rates of poverty, particularly chronic poverty, experienced by children living in the Maritimes. ********** We know that children living in the Maritime provinces of Canada have historically experienced higher rates of poverty than children living elsewhere in Canada. However, most evidence to date is based upon cross-sectional data, which provides only a snapshot at a point in time. Thus, we do not know whether cross-sectional child poverty rates are higher in the Maritimes because children remain poor for longer periods of time, or because more Maritime children have short spells of poverty. And, the implications of having more long-term versus more short-term poverty for children's health, happiness and educational success in the Maritimes versus the rest of Canada are not the same. While it is clear that higher rates of poverty in general are associated with worse outcomes for children, longer-term poverty bas particularly adverse consequences, especially for cognitive outcomes (see Phipps (2003) for a recent survey). Further, deciding how to design policy to tackle the problem of child poverty will be informed by a knowledge of whether a small group of children are chronically poor or a larger group experience shorter spells of poverty. If patterns of child poverty differ across regions, policy responses may need to differ correspondingly. This paper uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth to compare experiences of child poverty in the Maritimes versus the rest of Canada. What follows is divided into five sections. First, a review of relevant literature is presented; then the data are described; this is followed by a descriptive analysis of longer-term child poverty in the Maritimes compared to the rest of Canada; then, multivariate techniques are used to examine the role played by observable differences across the regions, with a particular focus on labour markets, in explaining the much higher rates of child poverty in the Maritimes. Finally, some conclusions are presented. Selected Review of the Literature Although cross-sectional studies indicate higher rates of child poverty in the Maritimes (e.g., National Council of Welfare 2002; Ross et al 2000; Sharif and Phipps 1994), there is little comparative analysis of longer-terre child poverty across Canadian regions. Two Canadian longitudinal studies do present fmdings relevant to the question of whether poverty is primarily chronic or transitory (though not whether patterns differ by region). Finnie and Sweetman ((2003), based on Finnie (2000a and 2000b)) use a sample of individuals aged 20 and over from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD) and find that individuals poor in 1992 were most likely to remain poor throughout the survey period (1992-1996); the second most likely path was to leave poverty in the next period and not to be observed poor again. Picot et al (1999) use longitudinal micro data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1993 and 1994. They focus on children and again suggest considerable persistence of poverty. Thus, existing Canadian evidence suggests 'two worlds' of poverty--those who are only temporarily poor and those who are chronically poor; this is also consistent with evidence for the US and Europe (e.g., Bane and Ellwood 1986; Bradbury and Jantti 2001). …

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