Climate Change Impact on Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Ottawa Sensitive Marine Clays
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The City of Ottawa is situated in an area known as the Champlain Sea, 17,000 years before present (BP) the entire area was covered with sea water. This area deposited marine clays which are known to be highly sensitive. The City of Ottawa needs to expand land use to allow for the expansion of infrastructure and housing to support its growth. This study is intended to assist the City of Ottawa’s geotechnical engineers in their decision-making by identifying future sensitive areas prone to landslides due to rainfall based on future climate model data. The project incorporates rainfall intensities from downscaled climate model data in the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model to investigate areas sensitive to landslides, then within a GIS platform, the future landslide susceptibility maps were created based on Factor of Safety (FS) values showing the areas prone to landslides. The data input for the model includes climate model data, topography, hydrogeology, geology and geophysical data obtained from a previous study. These data were prepared using ArcGIS software and converted into ascii format for TRIGRS model. The model was calibrated using historical rainfall intensities and validated by comparing to historical landslide areas. Sensitivity analysis were performed to ranges of geotechnical properties found within sensitive marine clays in the area to find the values best to create the ideal scenario, normal scenario and worst-case model scenario for the prediction. Rainfall intensities from projected climate data Intensities Duration Frequency (IDF) of 10 years and 50 years returning period and rainfall intensities of 12 hr, 24 hr, and 48 hr were selected for the model. Results from simulations find the projected climate rainfall intensity do not have impact or has minimal impact to slope stability in sensitive marine clay areas in Ottawa directly. However, higher rainfall runoff is expected from projected rainfall RCP8.5 than the RCP4.5. The infiltration rate remains constant throughout each simulation, which is the same value as the hydraulic conductivity. The time when the slope becomes unstable varies depending on initial water levels. Results from the ideal and normal scenario show no areas prone to slope failure after 48 hours of rainfall duration. However, the factor of safety decreases as the rainfall duration increases and is expected to decrease with longer rainfall durations. The worst-case scenario shows some areas prone to slope failure (FS < 1) with 2% probability of slope failure at 48 hours of rainfall duration. The distribution of these unstable areas are located along the Ottawa River, Rideau River, Carp River, Mississippi River and valleys along their tributaries, the majority of the area prone to slope instability from rainfall are in the east part of the City of Ottawa. While there are many uncertainties and limitations which contribute to the model results, this study is useful to engineers and planners in initial implementation of mitigation strategies to mitigate the damages and cost from landslides events. The susceptibility maps can also assist in decision making for planners in developing into these areas.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».