Multidimensional Machine Learning Personalized Prognostic Model in an Early Invasive Breast Cancer Population-Based Cohort in China: Algorithm Validation Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Current online prognostic prediction models for breast cancer, such as Adjuvant! Online and PREDICT, are based on specific populations. They have been well validated and widely used in the United States and Western Europe; however, several validation attempts in non-European countries have revealed suboptimal predictions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop an advanced breast cancer prognosis model for disease progression, cancer-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality by integrating tumor, demographic, and treatment characteristics from a large breast cancer cohort in China. METHODS: This study was approved by the Clinical Test and Biomedical Ethics Committee of West China Hospital, Sichuan University on May 17, 2012. Data collection for this project was started in May 2017 and ended in March 2019. Data on 5293 women diagnosed with stage I to III invasive breast cancer between 2000 and 2013 were collected. Disease progression, cancer-specific mortality, all-cause mortality, and the likelihood of disease progression or death within a 5-year period were predicted. Extreme gradient boosting was used to develop the prediction model. Model performance was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and the model was calibrated and compared with PREDICT. RESULTS: The training, test, and validation sets comprised 3276 (499 progressions, 202 breast cancer-specific deaths, and 261 all-cause deaths within 5-year follow-up), 1405 (211 progressions, 94 breast cancer-specific deaths, and 129 all-cause deaths), and 612 (109 progressions, 33 breast cancer-specific deaths, and 37 all-cause deaths) women, respectively. The AUROC values for disease progression, cancer-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality were 0.76, 0.88, and 0.82 for training set; 0.79, 0.80, and 0.83 for the test set; and 0.79, 0.84, and 0.88 for the validation set, respectively. Calibration analysis demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed events within 5 years. Comparable AUROC and calibration results were confirmed in different age, residence status, and receptor status subgroups. Compared with PREDICT, our model showed similar AUROC and improved calibration values. CONCLUSIONS: Our prognostic model exhibits high discrimination and good calibration. It may facilitate prognosis prediction and clinical decision making for patients with breast cancer in China.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».