Future Roles for Natural Gas in Decarbonising the Australian Electricity Supply within the NEM: Total System Costs are Key
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Electricity systems around the world are changing, with the Paris Agreement of 2015 a catalyst for much of this current change.1 The Australian Government ratified this agreement, by commiting to 26-28% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2030.2 Additionally, State governments are adopting more ambitious targets to increase variable renewable energy and focusing on net emissions reductions, while the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) warns of power instabilities and load shedding3. Given the difficulties in reducing emissions in other sectors, reductions in emissions from electricity generation has become the focus of these targets. Natural gas is often referred to as a ‘transition fuel’ towards a low emissions future, but this requires that it is in abundance and cost competitive. While the majority of the electricity generated in the National Energy Market (NEM) is coal-based, a vast majority of these plants are due to retire gradually between now and 2050, and this generation loss will need to be replaced in the context of low emissions aspirations. How this is done has significant implications for how much the system will cost, with natural gas playing a pivotal role. In order to decarbonise the grid to meet targets, while building firm, dispatchable generation capacity to support the system, a new metric is required to measure success. The changing generation mix, along with the need to maintain a competent grid, is resulting in previously acceptable cost comparison metrics being used outside of their limited range of applicability. Electricity generation facilities do not only provide energy, they also provide an array of additional services which are fundamental to maintaining a permanent and reliable electricity supply across the system. These services, corresponding costs and operational implications need to be included in the evaluation of technologies in order to ensure the grids emerge transformed, resilient and genuinely sustainable. Total System Cost is the most appropriate economic metric for analysis and decision making in a future, low emissions grid. This paper explores the outputs of the MEGS model (Model of Energy and Grid Services), showing the outcomes if a single technology group is favoured. High renewables, gas and carbon capture and storage scenarios are discussed. The optimal route to power grid decarbonisation needs to be be viewed as a team sport, not a race. It's an "and" not an "or" solution. There's a range of technologies that have very different, yet important, roles to play in providing the pathway to a low emissions, competent and reliable supply at the lowest total system cost.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».