Intergenerational Fairness: Will Our Kids Live Better than We Do
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
While large government deficits and debt raise concerns regarding intergenerational fairness, their longterm intergenerational impacts can significantly differ, depending on demographic shifts and future economic policy. In particular, population aging in Canada has accelerated during the past decade due to declining fertility and improving life expectancy. This demographic transition poses new fiscal challenges since it dampens growth in government revenue while putting pressure on government spending, particularly in healthcare and public pensions. Generational accounting is a powerful tool for assessing the lifetime fiscal burden on current and future generations, given demographic and economic projections. The method requires estimating the present value of government’s current and future net revenues to cover all current and future spending plus net debt. A large imbalance between the net tax burden faced by current and future generations over their lifetimes, in favor of current generations, would mean that existing fiscal policies are unfair and unsustainable. Using generational accounting, this Commentary shows that the projected lifetime fiscal burdens of the youngest generation (born since 2005) and future generations are very high: higher than those of any other generations, especially those born from the mid-1950s to the 1990s. Generally speaking, babyboomers and their children fare well in this scenario, but the grandkids of babyboomers do not. Looking to the future, we also specifically compare the prospective net tax burden faced by today’s newborns with those that will be faced by future generations. Here, the results are less troubling. We find future generations of Canadians are expected to face a slightly lower lifetime tax burden than newborns, implying relative intergenerational balance looking out into the future. However, small changes to the baseline scenario can make that balance tip unfavourably for future generations. For example, both higher-than-expected interest rates and lower-than-expected population growth would lead to generational imbalance by imposing higher net tax burdens on future generations. Also, failing to restrain the growth of healthcare spending below its recent experience (1996 to 2010 average) could shift the tax burden to future, unborn generations, and lead to a large and likely untenable imbalance. To ensure future intergenerational fairness and sustainability, policies that improve labour market outcomes of youth, women and immigrants, and that encourage a longer working life, should be supported. Restraining the growth of healthcare spending at a sustainable level is also a must.
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Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,008 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle