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Enregistrement W3125303406 · doi:10.1920/bn.ifs.2021.bn0316

Who is excluded from the government's Self Employment Income Support Scheme and what could the government do about it?

2021· report· en· W3125303406 sur OpenAlexaboutno aff
Jonathan Cribb, Isaac Delestre, Paul Johnson

Notice bibliographique

Revuenon disponible
Typereport
Langueen
DomaineHealth Professions
ThématiqueEmployment and Welfare Studies
Établissements canadiensnon disponible
Organismes subventionnairesEconomic and Social Research Council
Mots-clésIncome SupportGovernment (linguistics)Pound (networking)PopulationPaymentQuarter (Canadian coin)BusinessEconomicsEconomic growthFinanceGeographyDemographySociology

Résumé

récupéré en direct d'OpenAlex

The government has provided huge amounts of financial support to working people since the start of the pandemic, with its furlough scheme for employees forecast to cost £62.5 billion in 2020–21 and the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) forecast to cost £21 billion up to January 2021, with expected costs of up to a further £7 billion to cover the period from February to April 2021. SEISS provides payments once per quarter worth 80% of pre-pandemic profits up to a cap of £7,500 (per quarter) for eligible self-employed workers who have been adversely affected by the pandemic. However, despite huge spending on these support packages, important groups of self-employed workers are not eligible for it. This short briefing note sets out what we know about who have been excluded from this support and what options the government has for extending it to them. Key findings The government’s Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) is a generous form of income support for those who are eligible for it. It has been paid to (at least) 2.6 million people, costing £21 billion up to January 2021. At least three-quarters of the potentially eligible self-employed population have taken advantage of this scheme compared with the 30% of employees who were benefiting from the furlough scheme at its peak last May. However, around 1.8 million self-employed people and around 700,000 company owner-managers are not eligible for support through the scheme. For some of these people, it is technically very difficult for the government to provide targeted support. This is the case for owner-managers and newly self-employed people. This is not the case for the 1.3 million self-employed people who have less than 50% of their income coming from self-employment, or for the 225,000 people who have profits in excess of £50,000. The government has actively chosen to exclude these people from SEISS. There are clear injustices in the way these people are excluded, not least in the hard cut-offs which mean someone with profits of £50,000 can claim the maximum available while someone with £50,001 can claim nothing. Equally, someone with 51% of declared income from self-employment can claim the maximum, while someone with 49% can claim nothing. More than half of self-employed people with less than 50% of their income from self-employment have total personal incomes of under £25,000, meaning that targeting support at this group would affect many people with low or moderate personal incomes. They also have relatively low levels of self-employment profits (more than half have profits under £5,000 per year). 45% of people in this situation are women compared with just 35% of those supported by SEISS. We estimate that extending SEISS to them would be relatively cheap in comparison with other spending on government support schemes (between £500 million and £800 million per quarter, with average quarterly payments of between £600 and £1,000 per person). People earning over £50,000 per year in self-employment profits have on average very high incomes. While over half of them have incomes between £50,000 and £100,000, some will have much higher incomes. But denying support to them entirely creates a clear unfairness for people who earn just over £50,000 compared with those earning just under, and is inconsistent with how the furlough scheme works for employees. Extending SEISS fully to this whole group would cost £1.3 billion per quarter with a payment of £7,500 per person. Providing a tapered form of support to those with profits between £50,000 and £100,000 would cost must less: around £350 million per quarter. Fully supporting those with less than half their income from self-employment and providing some support to those with prior self-employment income between £50,000 and £100,000 would likely cost around £1 billion per quarter. That is just 5% of the cost of SEISS to date (and around 1% of the combined cost of the SEISS and furlough schemes to date). It is hard to believe it would be significantly less well targeted than the current SEISS, and it would certainly support a significant number of people facing financial difficulties.

Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.

Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier

Prédiction machine sur la base complète

Imitation des enseignants

Ni prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.

score de la tête « metaresearch » (Codex)0,009
score de la tête « metaresearch » (Gemma)0,033
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cStatut de validation: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Catégories candidatesaucune
Catégories consensuellesaucune
DomaineSignal candidat: aucune · Signal consensuel: aucune
Devis d'étudeSignal candidat: Sans objet · Signal consensuel: Sans objet
GenreSignal candidat: Autre · Signal consensuel: aucune
Score de désaccord entre enseignants0,065
Score d'incertitude au seuil0,129

Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)

CatégorieCodexGemma
Métarecherche0,0090,033
Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict)0,0000,000
Méta-épidémiologie (sens large)0,0010,001
Bibliométrie0,0010,002
Études des sciences et des technologies0,0040,004
Communication savante0,0070,012
Science ouverte0,0020,004
Intégrité de la recherche0,0080,009
Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger)0,0250,005

Scores machine (provisoires)

Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.

Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.

Tête enseignante Opus0,069
Tête enseignante GPT0,397
Écart entre enseignants0,328 · la distance entre les deux têtes enseignantes sur ce seul travail
Statut de validationscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle

Classification

machine, non validée

Prédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.

Les modèles n’ont appliqué aucune catégorie : rien dans la taxonomie ne correspondait à ce travail.
Devis d'étudeSans objet
Domainenon disponible
GenreAutre

Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».

En bref

Citations14
Publié2021
Routes d'admission1
Résumé présentoui

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