Identifying Acuity Level-Based Adult Emergency Department Use Time Trends Across Demographic Characteristics
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Introduction Canadian emergency departments (EDs) are struggling under the weight of increased use by a growing population of elderly patients; those who lack proper housing; and those who lack family physicians to provide primary care. The Canadian Foundation for Healthcare Improvement projected a possible ED service utilization increase in Canada at a rate of 40% over three decades. This calls for local-level information on the time trends to understand demographic and temporal variations in the different geographical locations in the country. This study sought to identify and quantify acuity level-based per capita ED visit annual time trends for the 10-year period of 2006-2015 (by age, gender, and housing status). The aim is to provide detailed information on the time trends for demographically targeted ED planning locally. The lengthy record of data allows examining the changing directions in different time segments. Material and methods Administrative data from the largest emergency department in Halifax (Nova Scotia, Canada) was analyzed. Per capita adult ED visit rates (EDVR) based on Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS), age, gender, and housing status were analyzed. Trends in the age-gender-based standardized rates using 2011 census city population data were also estimated in order to account for the population increase in the city. Results No study in Canada has documented the possibility of flattening the escalating ED visit trend by maintaining an annual declining trend in low-acuity-level visits or documented a threshold rate of decline to be maintained. This study observed that the annual linear per capita non-homeless EDVR increment trend (328/year, CI:245-411, per 100,000) for all-acuity-level visits - noted for a ten-year period - would become stable when low-acuity-level CTAS4-5 visit declining trends (427/year, CI:350-503 and 121/year, CI:79-163, per 100,000) - noted for the period of 2012-2015 - were maintained at the same magnitude and direction. Alarming annual emergent (high acuity level of CTAS2) EDVR increase equivalent to 335/year (CI:280-391, per 100,000) was noted for all combined visits, from all age, gender, and housing groups visits. The highest incremental rate noted among above-50-year-olds (521/year, per 100,000, 95% CI:433-608) was neither driven by overall increasing population census numbers nor by increasing aging population numbers. We found statistically similar age-gender standardized rates (294/year, CI: 207-382) for all ED visits and (316/year, CI:261-372) for CTAS2 level visits, when adjusted for annual population increase. Homeless ED visits did not contribute to the overall ED visit incremental trend. The highest annual homeless increment rate was shown for <30-year-old group high acuity CTAS-2 level visits (219/year, CI:193-246, per 100,000). Conclusion Neither the city population increase nor increased homeless visits contributed to ED visit annual per capita incremental trends in the city of Halifax. The increasing trend was chiefly driven by high-acuity-level visits by >50-year-old patients. Our findings suggest one way to make this escalating ED visit rates stable in the future is by maintaining the declining semi-urgent and non-urgent visit trends at the same rates estimated within the years 2012-2015. These findings highlight the potential directions for ED services planning to keep up with the growing demand for high-acuity-level ED services by the aging population.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».