Early and ongoing importations of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Tracking the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform public health interventions. Phylodynamic analyses have quantified SARS-CoV-2 migration on global and local scales 1–5 , yet they have not been applied to determine transmission dynamics in Canada. We quantified SARS-CoV-2 migration into, within, and out of Canada in the context of COVID-19 travel restrictions. To minimize sampling bias, global sequences were subsampled with probabilities corrected for their countries’ monthly contribution to global new diagnoses. A time-scaled maximum likelihood tree was used to estimate most likely ancestral geographic locations (country or Canadian province), enabling identification of sublineages, defined as introduction events into Canada resulting in domestic transmission. Of 402 Canadian sublineages identified, the majority likely originated from the USA (54%), followed by Russia (7%), India (6%), Italy (6%), and the UK (5%). International introductions were mostly into Ontario (39%) and Quebec (38%). Among Pango lineages 6 , B.1 was imported at least 191 separate times from 11 different countries. Introduction rates peaked in late March then diminished but were not eliminated following national interventions including restrictions on non-essential travel. We further identified 1,380 singleton importations, international importations that did not result in further sampled transmission, whereby representation of lineages and location were comparable to sublineages. Although proportion of international transmission decreased over time, this coincided with exponential growth of within-province transmission – in fact, total number of sampled transmission events from international or interprovincial sources increased from winter 2020 into spring 2020 in many provinces. Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia acted as sources of transmission more than recipients, within the caveat of higher sequence representation. We present strong evidence that international introductions and interprovincial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 contributed to the Canadian COVID-19 burden throughout 2020, despite initial reductions mediated by travel restrictions in 2020. More stringent border controls and quarantine measures may have curtailed introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Canada and may still be warranted. Significance Statement By analyzing SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Canada in the context of the global pandemic, we illuminate the extent to which the COVID-19 burden in Canada was perpetuated by ongoing international importations and interprovincial transmission throughout 2020. Although travel restrictions enacted in March 2020 reduced the importation rate and proportion of transmission from abroad across all Canadian provinces, SARS-CoV-2 introductions from the USA, India, Russia, and other nations were detectable through the summer and fall of 2020.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».