MO553INSIDE ANEMIA OF CKD: MICROSIMULATION MODELLING OF THE FUTURE COST BURDEN OF ANAEMIA OF CKD IN CANADA
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Background and Aims Anaemia is a common complication in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Prevalence of anaemia increases with CKD severity and ranges from 17% in patients with stage 3 disease to over 50% in patients with stage 5 CKD who are not on dialysis. Anaemia of CKD is associated with increased mortality, cardiovascular complications, reduced quality of life and increased use of healthcare resources. Mathematical modelling based on robust epidemiological and clinical data is a useful approach for predicting the future burden of disease, which is important for health service planning. This analysis uses a microsimulation model, Inside ANEMIA of CKD, to project the economic burden of anaemia of CKD in Canada from 2020 to 2025. Method A virtual cohort representing the Canadian population was created within the Inside ANEMIA of CKD microsimulation model framework, using Canadian demographics and epidemiological data drawn from Statistics Canada and a provincial renal database. In the cohort, virtual individuals were ascribed an age–sex-stratified CKD status (defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria levels, as per international guidelines) and anaemia status (defined as mild, moderate or severe based on haemoglobin level, as per WHO criteria) based on Canadian prevalence data. Key comorbidities (type 2 diabetes, heart failure and hypertension) were also assigned, reflecting Canada-specific population statistics. Incidence rates for acute kidney injury and cardiovascular complications (heart failure, myocardial infarction and stroke) were drawn from the literature. Costs related to CKD, anaemia of CKD and associated complications were taken from Canadian government sources and the literature, and are shown in Canadian dollars (C$). Results Preliminary results show that, in Canada, the number of individuals with anaemia of CKD is projected to increase by approximately 0.8 million between 2020 and 2025 (from 1.8 million to 2.6 million). Annual healthcare costs for patients with anaemia of CKD are projected to increase by 17% by 2025 (from C$19.3 billion to C$22.5 billion). Between 2020 and 2025, the costs associated with cardiovascular complications in patients with anaemia of CKD are projected to increase by 28% for heart failure (from C$1.13 billion to C$1.45 billion), 26% for myocardial infarction (from C$0.83 billion to C$1.05 billion) and 29% for stroke (from C$0.99 billion to C$1.29 billion). Conclusion Inside ANEMIA of CKD is the first microsimulation model to project the economic burden of anaemia of CKD in Canada. Based on the modelling projections, the increase in the number of individuals with anaemia of CKD over the next 5 years will be accompanied by a parallel increase in associated healthcare costs and a marked rise in the cost of cardiovascular complications. Evidence-based therapies for anaemia of CKD that lower cardiovascular complications are needed to reduce the economic burden on healthcare services.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,004 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».