Atmospherically forced sea-level variability in western Hudson Bay, Canada
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract. In recent years, significant trends toward earlier breakup and later freeze-up of sea ice in Hudson Bay have led to a considerable increase in shipping activity through the Port of Churchill, which is located in western Hudson Bay and is the only deep-water ocean port in the province of Manitoba. Therefore, understanding sea-level variability at the port is an urgent issue crucial for safe navigation and coastal infrastructure. Using tidal gauge data from the port along with an atmospheric reanalysis and Churchill River discharge, we assess environmental factors impacting synoptic to seasonal variability of sea level at Churchill. An atmospheric vorticity index used to describe the wind forcing was found to correlate with sea level at Churchill. Statistical analyses show that, in contrast to earlier studies, local discharge from the Churchill River can only explain up to 5 % of the sea-level variability. The cyclonic wind forcing contributes from 22 % during the ice-covered winter–spring season to 30 % during the ice-free summer–fall season due to cyclone-induced storm surges generated along the coast. Multiple regression analysis revealed that wind forcing and local river discharge combined can explain up to 32 % of the sea-level variability at Churchill. Our analysis further revealed that the seasonal cycle of sea level at Churchill appears to be impacted by the seasonal cycle in atmospheric circulation rather than by the seasonal cycle in local discharge from the Churchill River, particularly post-construction of the Churchill River diversion in 1977. Sea level at Churchill shows positive anomalies for September–November compared to June–August. This seasonal difference was also revealed for the entire Hudson Bay coast using satellite-derived sea-level altimetry. This anomaly was associated with enhanced cyclonic atmospheric circulation during fall, reaching a maximum in November, which forced storm surges along the coast. Complete sea-ice cover during winter impedes momentum transfer from wind stress to the water column, reducing the impact of wind forcing on sea-level variability. Expanding our observations to the bay-wide scale, we confirmed the process of wind-driven sea-level variability with (i) tidal-gauge data from eastern Hudson Bay and (ii) satellite altimetry measurements. Ultimately, we find that cyclonic winds generate sea-level rise along the western and eastern coasts of Hudson Bay at the synoptic and seasonal timescales, suggesting an amplification of the bay-wide cyclonic geostrophic circulation in fall (October–November), when cyclonic vorticity is enhanced, and Hudson Bay is ice-free.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».