Re-discovering Robert E. Horton's Lake Evaporation Formulae: New Directions for Evaporation Physics
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract. Evaporation from open water is among the most rigorously studied problems in hydrology. Robert E. Horton, unbeknownst to most investigators on the subject, studied it in great detail by conducting experiments and heuristically relating his observations to physical laws. His work furthered known theories of lake evaporation, but it appears that it got dismissed as simply empirical. This is unfortunate, because Horton’s century-old insights on the topic, which we summarize here, seem relevant for contemporary climate change-era problems. In re-discovering his overlooked lake evaporation works, in this paper we: 1) examine his several publications in the period 1915–1944 and identify his theory sources for evaporation physics among scientists of the late 1800s; 2) illustrate his lake evaporation formulae which require several equations, tables, thresholds, and conditions based on physical factors and assumptions; and 3) assess his evaporation results over continental U.S., and analyse the performance of his formula in a subarctic Canadian catchment by comparing it with five other calibrated (aerodynamic and mass transfer) evaporation formulae of varying complexity. We find that Horton’s method, due to its unique variable vapor pressure deficit (VVPD) term, outperforms all other methods by ~ 3–15 % of R2 consistently across timescales (days to months), and an order of magnitude higher at sub-daily scales (we assessed up to 30 mins). Surprisingly, when his method uses input vapor pressure disaggregated from reanalysis data, it still outperforms other methods which use local measurements. This indicates that the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) term currently used in all other evaporation methods is not as good an independent control for lake evaporation as Horton's VVPD. Therefore, Horton's evaporation formula is held to be a major improvement in lake evaporation theory which, in part, may: A) supplant or improve existing evaporation formulae including the aerodynamic part of the combination (Penman) method; B) point to new directions in lake evaporation physics as it leads to a "constant" and a non-dimensional ratio – the former is due to him, John Dalton (1802), and Gustav Schübler (1831), and the latter to him and Josef Stefan (1881); C) offer better insights behind the physics of the evaporation paradox (i.e. globally, decreasing trends in pan evaporation are unanimously observed, while the opposite is expected due to global warming). Curiously, his rare observations of convective vapor plumes from lakes may also help explain the mythical origins of Greek deity Venus and the dancing Nereids.
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Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,025 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,007 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».