Ranking Rule-Based Automatic Explanations for Machine Learning Predictions on Asthma Hospital Encounters in Patients With Asthma: Retrospective Cohort Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Asthma hospital encounters impose a heavy burden on the health care system. To improve preventive care and outcomes for patients with asthma, we recently developed a black-box machine learning model to predict whether a patient with asthma will have one or more asthma hospital encounters in the succeeding 12 months. Our model is more accurate than previous models. However, black-box machine learning models do not explain their predictions, which forms a barrier to widespread clinical adoption. To solve this issue, we previously developed a method to automatically provide rule-based explanations for the model's predictions and to suggest tailored interventions without sacrificing model performance. For an average patient correctly predicted by our model to have future asthma hospital encounters, our explanation method generated over 5000 rule-based explanations, if any. However, the user of the automated explanation function, often a busy clinician, will want to quickly obtain the most useful information for a patient by viewing only the top few explanations. Therefore, a methodology is required to appropriately rank the explanations generated for a patient. However, this is currently an open problem. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop a method to appropriately rank the rule-based explanations that our automated explanation method generates for a patient. METHODS: We developed a ranking method that struck a balance among multiple factors. Through a secondary analysis of 82,888 data instances of adults with asthma from the University of Washington Medicine between 2011 and 2018, we demonstrated our ranking method on the test case of predicting asthma hospital encounters in patients with asthma. RESULTS: For each patient predicted to have asthma hospital encounters in the succeeding 12 months, the top few explanations returned by our ranking method typically have high quality and low redundancy. Many top-ranked explanations provide useful insights on the various aspects of the patient's situation, which cannot be easily obtained by viewing the patient's data in the current electronic health record system. CONCLUSIONS: The explanation ranking module is an essential component of the automated explanation function, and it addresses the interpretability issue that deters the widespread adoption of machine learning predictive models in clinical practice. In the next few years, we plan to test our explanation ranking method on predictive modeling problems addressing other diseases as well as on data from other health care systems. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/5039.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».